XRP on Edge: Will $2 Support Crumble and Lead to a 40% Plunge or Spark a Multi-Year Rally to $30?

XRP is standing on shaky ground as it clings to the $2.0 support level, a spot that’s proving to be a real make-or-break zone. While there’s no shortage of good news in the background, the price hasn’t caught up to the optimism just yet. In fact, if XRP fails to hold this key level, it could tumble as much as 40%, all the way down to $1.20. The bounce from $1.90 has been sharp, but with daily trading volume down by more than 50%, traders seem to be sitting on the sidelines, waiting for a clearer signal.

Ripple Lawsuit Progress and Growing Holder Confidence

On the brighter side, there’s growing excitement around the Ripple lawsuit’s progress. The SEC and Ripple just filed a joint request to pause the appeal, something that could finally bring this years-long case closer to the finish line. And the on-chain story looks even better: over 6.26 million addresses now hold at least one XRP, a record for the network. It’s a sign that confidence is building, and talks of a spot XRP ETF are only adding fuel to the fire for long-term believers.

Caution in the Air Despite Big Price Targets

Still, not everything is sunshine and rainbows. Global uncertainty and market-wide volatility are keeping traders cautious. Some analysts are pointing to a potential head and shoulders pattern forming, and with volumes dipping, there’s a sense that something big is brewing. Yes, long-term XRP price prediction targets like $22 or $30 are being thrown around, but right now, XRP needs to prove it can hold the line. Crypto analyst EGRAG Crypto, referencing a multi-year chart pattern, suggested that a retracement to $1.20 could actually set the stage for a massive rally ahead.

Chart 1, Analyzed by egragcrypto, published on April 10th, 2025

He pointed to the 2017 cycle’s 2,600% breakout as a precedent and believes that history could repeat itself, provided XRP holds the macro structure. With all that in mind, let’s take a closer look at what the short-term chart is telling us about where the XRP might be headed next.

XRP Price Action Analysis of April 11th, 2025

XRP’s 5-minute chart shows a clear shift in market mood after a stretch of sideways action. At first, the price was stuck in a tight range between $1.975 and $2.035, signaling a standoff between buyers and sellers with no clear direction. But things changed quickly when XRP broke below that range, slipping into a descending channel that eventually found support around $1.925. During this dip, the RSI mostly hovered between neutral and oversold levels, pointing to sustained selling pressure. However, things started to look up when the RSI bounced back from oversold territory, and a Golden Cross appeared on the MACD.

Chart 1, Analyzed by Alokkp0608, published on April 10th, 2025

As the prices recovered from the support zone, XRP entered an ascending channel, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows. The RSI touched overbought levels twice, suggesting aggressive buying, while the MACD confirmed this strength with multiple Golden Crosses and sustained bullish histogram bars. However, recent signs of fatigue have emerged, with RSI retreating from overbought territory and a fresh Death Cross appearing on the MACD. Price is now approaching key resistance near $2.05, previously a strong rejection zone. The confluence of rising channel support and this overhead resistance will likely dictate XRP’s next move. 

Conclusion: XRP at a Crossroads Amid Bullish Hopes and Bearish Risks

The XRP is hanging by a thread right now, sitting at a make-or-break level of around $2. While there’s a lot of long-term optimism, thanks to progress in the Ripple lawsuit, rising adoption, and bold XRP price predictions like EGRAG Crypto’s call for $30, the short-term picture isn’t as clear. If XRP can hold above $2, it might regain momentum and push higher. But if it slips, there’s a real risk of a sharp drop toward $1.20. On the technical side, the 5-minute chart shows a mix of bullish momentum and early signs of fatigue. The next few sessions could be crucial, and traders will want to keep a close eye on how XRP behaves around this key zone.