Trump Leads Harris by 10 Points on Polymarket as Ripple’s Chris Larsen Donates $1M to Harris Campaign

Former President Donald Trump, per the Polymarket prediction platform, is currently leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 10 points, marking a sharp U-turn from the betting odds in September.

Current 2024 election odds. Source: Polymarket 

Trump now holds a 55% chance of winning the presidency in November 2024, the latest data, as of writing, shows, compared to Harris’ 45%. This shift is further buttressed by Trump’s lead in four key swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania — where he has overtaken Harris’ previous advantage. Arizona and Georgia represent the largest margins in favor of Trump, solidifying his position in the GOP strongholds.

Swing State Odds:

Arizona • 🟥 Trump 68-34%
Georgia • 🟥 Trump 64-36%
Pennsylvania • 🟥 Trump 55-45%
Michigan • 🟥 Trump 51-49%
Nevada • 🟦 Harris 51-49%
Wisconsin • 🟦 Harris 51-49%

25 days until the election. pic.twitter.com/vVUUfdAsvj

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 11, 2024

Cramer’s Prediction: Harris to Win

Despite Trump’s recent gains on Polymarket, CNBC’s Jim Cramer posits an otherwise view on the discourse. On October 11, Cramer rehashed his belief that Harris would win the 2024 presidential election. “I don’t see how Donald Trump wins,” he registered.

“I don’t see how Donald Trump wins”

– Jim Cramer

Inverse Cramer … Trump victory locked in. pic.twitter.com/WPEq7wjiDu

— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) October 11, 2024

Cramer’s prediction triggered quite the conversations on social media, largely due to the ‘inverse Cramer effect,’ a phenomenon well-known among cryptocurrency traders. The theory suggests that whenever Cramer makes a prediction, the opposite is likely to occur.

Trump’s Crypto Outreach and Campaign Strategy

Trump’s growing popularity on Polymarket coincides with his public efforts to engage the crypto community. On September 18, Trump made headlines when he used Bitcoin (BTC) to purchase burgers at a New York bar. The event was part of a broader campaign strategy to appeal to crypto voters.

One of the most historic transactions in #bitcoin history was just made.

President @realDonaldTrump buying burgers at @PubKey_NYC with @tpacchia.

Block height: 861871

You saw it here first. pic.twitter.com/moHUIKDxej

— PUBKEY (@PubKey_NYC) September 18, 2024

The same day, Trump’s decentralized finance (DeFi) project, World Liberty Financial, publicized the launch of its native token. Albeit, the move was met with mixed reactions within the crypto community. Journalist Nic Carter voiced concerns, stating, “I think it genuinely damages Trump’s electoral prospects, especially if it gets hacked (it’ll be the juiciest DeFi target ever, and it’s forked from a protocol that itself was hacked).”

is there something that we, as crypto twitter, can collectively do to stop the launch of world liberty coin? i think it genuinely damages trump's electoral prospects, especially if it gets hacked (it'll be the juiciest DeFi target ever and it's forked from a protocol that itself…

— nic carter (@nic__carter) September 4, 2024

Despite these concerns, others in the industry remain unshaken by the likely political impact of crypto. Dan Tapiero, founder of 10T Holdings, predicted that BTC’s price would seize $100,000 regardless of who wins the election in November.

Crypto Donations and Harris’ Campaign Support

Meanwhile, Vice President Harris is receiving notable support from the crypto space. Records from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) revealed that Ripple co-founder and executive chairman Chris Larsen donated 1,754,815.29 XRP, valued at $1 million at the time, to the Harris-Walz 2024 Presidential campaign. 

🚨SCOOP: @Ripple co-founder @chrislarsensf has made the first documented #crypto donation to @KamalaHarris.

According to new FEC filings, Larsen donated $1 million in $XRP to one of the leading super PACs supporting Harris — Future Forward USA.@AppBreadcrumbs pic.twitter.com/XAYbUImpS5

— Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) October 11, 2024

The contribution, made on August 14, 2024, went to the pro-Harris Future Forward political action committee (PAC), marking the first documented crypto donation to Harris’ campaign.

The XRP donation by Chris Larsen to the pro-Harris PAC. Source: Federal Election Commission (FEC)

Larsen and 87 other business leaders endorsed Harris in a letter released in September. The letter expressed confidence that “with Kamala Harris in the White House, the business community can be assured of a President committed to fostering American industries.” The signatories also praised Harris’ record of promoting policies that encourage business investment in the United States.