Toncoin on the Rise: What’s Driving the 67% Open Interest Spike?

Toncoin registered a remarkable 67% growth in open interest (OI) on March 15, 2025, to $169 million. This followed reports that Telegram founder Pavel Durov had escaped France after months of legal restrictions. Toncoin had registered comparable OI highs on February 1, when it hit $171.49 million. Apart from the OI growth, the price of Toncoin also rose by 17% to $3.45.

This unexpected market movement has sparked speculation about the cryptocurrency’s trajectory, with analysts debating whether Toncoin is entering a phase of long-term accumulation or facing the risk of heightened volatility.

Market Reaction to Durov’s Exit

Durov had been under French restrictions since his August 2024 arrest after being charged with allowing illegal labor through Telegram. His sudden departure created fears of regulatory issues for privacy-focused platforms like Telegram. Officials in France recently returned his passport, thus allowing him to leave.

Historically, Toncoin’s market movements have been closely linked to developments surrounding Durov. When he was arrested in August, Toncoin’s OI surged by 32%, but its price dropped by nearly 12%. In contrast, this time, the price has gained momentum, showing investor optimism despite regulatory uncertainties.

Liquidation Risks and Volatility Concerns

Despite the recent rally creating a sense of optimism, concerns remain about potential price corrections. Analysts warn that if the price of Toncoin falls back to $3, approximately $18.8 million in long positions could be at risk of liquidation. This is a reminder of the precarious nature of the current uptrend, as investors remain cautious towards potential market movements.

Telegram’s Evolving Stance on Privacy and Regulation

Durov’s legal fights in court have put Telegram under the spotlight, compelling the service to change the way it does regulatory collaboration. In 2024, Telegram published data regarding about 900 U.S. government requests, including IP addresses and phone numbers. The move is in contrast to the service’s former image as an aggressive defender of user privacy.

At the same time, Telegram reaffirmed its backing of the TON ecosystem. In January 2025, the company announced that it would discontinue support for any blockchain except The Open Network (TON). This move further enhances the integration of Toncoin into Telegram’s services and is a long-term strategic focus on the TON blockchain.

What’s Next for Toncoin?

The cryptocurrency market fluctuations are not affecting the growth of Toncoin and its investors. Its present surge shows increased confidence in investors, but the impending regulatory uncertainty and liquidation risk threat could impact its stability. With Telegram maintaining its concentration on the TON blockchain and adapting to increasing regulatory pressures, the destiny of Toncoin will be decided by a mix of internal growth and overall market forces.

As the world evolves, investors and analysts will watch how Toncoin responds to these enhanced dynamics in the coming months.