Yakovenko Warns Quantum Computing Could Break Bitcoin

Anatoly Yakovenko, the Solana co-founder, sounded the alarm. He sees about a 50/50 shot that quantum computing will hit a breakthrough by 2030. So, that could seriously undermine Bitcoin’s signature system. Also, he is urging the Bitcoin community to expedite a move toward quantum-resistant cryptography. Specifically, Yakovenko flagged Bitcoin’s (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm) ECDSA vulnerability as a critical point. So, if action gets delayed, there’s a real risk to trust in the crypto market.

Will Quantum Computing Break Bitcoin Security Soon?

Yakovenko spoke at the All-In Summit 2025 podcast, stating that advancement in quantum computing is occurring faster than people anticipate. He estimates there’s an even chance, about 50/50, that a major quantum breakthrough could arrive within the next five years. So, it is enabling attackers to exploit Bitcoin’s reliance on ECDSA.

His message is that Bitcoin should prioritize upgrading to quantum-safe signature schemes before theoretical risks become real threats. While Bitcoin is strong in many aspects, its dependence on ECDSA leaves it exposed once sufficiently advanced quantum computers become available. Right now, classical cryptography handles the job, but that’s only buying so much time. Yakovenko acknowledges that moving to a quantum-resistant cryptographic stack is a complex engineering challenge, but it’s a necessary investment.

This isn’t just about Bitcoin. Yakovenko also urged major technology firms like Google and Apple to start integrating quantum-resistant protocols into their infrastructure. As breakthroughs in hardware and AI keep closing the gap, the window to prepare keeps shrinking. So, his advice to both businesses and developers is to address this sooner rather than later.

ECDSA Vulnerability and Migration Plans

The primary risk centers on ECDSA vulnerability; those signatures hold up, but quantum computing is the exception. Once quantum capabilities catch up and start cracking discrete logarithm problems, ECDSA’s security takes a downturn. Once quantum computers can handle discrete logarithm problems, historical transactions and wallet addresses might suddenly be exposed. 

We’re not there yet—no one has quantum machines publicly breaking ECDSA today. But with research moving fast and AI simulations showing what’s possible, it’s a growing concern. Yakovenko’s advice? Don’t wait around. The industry should start moving toward quantum-resistant signature schemes like hash-based or lattice cryptography. The time to invest and transition is now, not after an incident. If the crypto market doesn’t prioritize this, the risks are only going to mount.

Community Response and Possible Solutions

The Bitcoin ecosystem’s developers and stakeholders are currently assessing what a major shift might involve. This covers topics like forks, current wallet standards, and possibly doing away with ECDSA for cryptographic algorithms. Naturally, these changes would likely require an overhaul in wallet designs to align with updated protocols.

Yakovenko pointed out that the open and decentralized nature of Bitcoin inherently makes reaching an agreement more difficult. However, it also creates an atmosphere that is conducive to cooperative problem-solving.

Others emphasize the necessity of coupling any technical upgrades with comprehensive education, transparent auditing processes, and robust open-source development practices. For Yakovenko, this is an opportunity to architect a far more resilient Bitcoin infrastructure for the future.

Quantum Computing Demands Action

Considering Yakovenko’s warning, it’s clear that quantum computing is a real challenge on the horizon for the crypto market. Bitcoin’s ECDSA? Vulnerable, plain and simple. If the industry hesitates, those armed with quantum tech could compromise previous transactions.

From a business perspective, the smart move is to get out ahead. Transitioning to quantum-resistant infrastructure is about preserving client confidence and protecting valuable assets. Also, adopting post-quantum signature protocols, building consensus among stakeholders, and having a proactive upgrade plan are non-negotiable. Quick and decisive action now could actually position the industry as an innovator, turning a serious threat into a competitive advantage.