TON Coin Plunges from $3.800 to $3.125: Is More Downside Ahead?

The recent price drop in TON Coin has instilled fear in the minds of investors. The market has been consolidating for around two weeks, and now a breakout has happened to the downside. As the TON price has already dropped below $3, the price direction is once again heading toward its all-time low from a month ago.

If you are planning to invest or have already invested in TON Coin, then this analysis is for you. Let’s analyse what’s happening in the TON price chart and explore the possible scenarios. Will it be volatile in the coming week, or will it remain stable? If volatility increases, what are the key support and resistance levels that traders should keep in mind? Let’s dive into the TON price analysis and find our answers.

TON Price Analysis from 23rd to 28th February

On 23rd February, RSI reached the overbought area, indicating an overstretched price. At 11:30 UTC on the same day, the price marked its top at $3.800. The price broke out at the same time to the downside of an upward-moving trendline. As the price declined, it pushed the price to the level of $3.320. 

RSI showed an oversold condition, which helped in the formation of an expanding triangle pattern. At 03:00 UTC on 25th February, MACD showed a golden crossover, suggesting a reversal or at least a pullback in the ongoing downtrend. The expanding triangle broke out to the upside at 11:30 UTC on 25th February, forming a spike and channel pattern.

Chart 1: Analysed by vallijat007, published on TradingView, March 1, 2025

At 05:30 UTC on 26th February, MACD showed a death cross signal as the price broke out of the channel and formed a small range, then the range broke out to the downside. From 21:00 UTC on 26th February to 14:30 UTC on 27th February, the price showed a range in the form of a channel. The channel broke out to the downside, and a pullback happened as RSI moved to the oversold area at 20:00 UTC.

A breakout of the downward trendline occurred at 01:00 UTC on 28th February. The price reached its weekly low of $3.125 as RSI moved into the oversold area, and a golden crossover appeared at 08:30 UTC on 28th February. The price pulled back, forming a spike and channel pattern.

Potential Breakout Scenarios and Market Outlook

If the channel breaks out to the upside, then the first target should be a minimum of $3.440, as it is the last lower high price created. If the channel breaks out to the downside, the recent low, which acts as the support level, will become the first target, which is $3.125.

As the major trend is downward, the majority of the upside breakouts will fail, and the support level it created will also break as the price moves and breaks its low to create a lower low. Traders and investors should think twice before taking an upside position, as the overall market scenario is bearish.

Conclusion: Caution is Key Amid Market Volatility

The whole crypto space is facing selling pressure, and it is not a wise choice to assume that TON Coin will recover soon. After Bitcoin hit its all-time high, it dropped around 20% in value, and altcoins have not been spared from the decline. TON Coin is already under bearish pressure as it continues to head toward its all-time low of $2.978.

Investors and traders should remain cautious, as next week may bring further volatility. The price may drop further and create another all-time low for TON Coin. In these uncertain times, capital preservation is more important than aggressive investing. If you are already invested, take a moment to reassess your position and carefully evaluate your investment strategy.