Tom Lee Sees Strong Optimism for 2026 as ISM Expansion Could Shift Markets

Tom Lee reckons that there is much to look forward to in 2026. He has expressed this opinion in a recent CNBC video. The remarks were pointed out by Lark Davis. The message was clear. The macro conditions are likely to change in the near future. The ISM Manufacturing PMI has remained under 50 in a period of more than three years. This signals contraction. It is an indication of low manufacturing. The recent ISM is supposed to come later today. The latest figure was 47.9.

Why ISM Above 50 Matters

At ISM values greater than 50, the situation is different. The economy enters the expansion. There is an increase in business confidence. Capital begins to circulate once again. Investors are less defensive. Risk appetite increases. Tom Lee attributes this change to Bitcoin upside. In the past, risk assets are more effective in times of expansion. Bitcoin is more likely to enjoy the advantage of liquidity. There is an increase in institutional flows. There is entry of long-term capital into markets.

Historical Correlation

Past data supports this idea. ISM has recovered in 2020 following pandemic lows. The Bitcoin surged after that. The 20202021 year was based on expansion indicators. Markets were dominated by risk-on behavior. There are several tailwinds identified by Lee. Monetary easing is expected. It is still being adopted institutionally. The number of crypto owners is still low in the world. This leaves room for growth. The crypto community was responding favorably.

Perennial shareholders are justified. ISM is under the scrutiny of the traders. It is regarded by many as one of the macro triggers. The hope of Tom Lee in 2026 is based on macro data. The growth of ISM may become a point of departure. Bitcoin and other risk assets will be the beneficiaries. The set up is promising although it still requires confirmation. Shareholders are waiting with bated breath.