Tariff Twist Sends Bitcoin to $86K—Is $90K Just Days Away or Another Trap?

Bitcoin is back in the headlines—and not just for breaking a new price level. The world’s top cryptocurrency has soared past $86,000, driven by unexpected U.S.-China trade news that could reshape investor sentiment in a big way. But while bulls are already eyeing the $90K mark, some warn this could also be a classic setup for a market reversal.

So, what happened?

A Tariff Shock Sparks Risk Appetite

Over the weekend, Bitcoin gained 2.41%—adding to Friday’s 4.75% rally—and reached $85,379. The surge followed a late-Friday announcement from U.S. Customs and Border Patrol confirming tariff exemptions on major tech imports like smartphones, routers, and select computers. These exemptions fall outside the aggressive 125% tariffs that former President Donald Trump imposed earlier this month.

CN Wire reported that while it’s still unclear whether all smartphones will escape other existing levies, the move marks a softening tone in the trade war narrative.

The implications? Less inflationary pressure, more optimism around Federal Reserve rate cuts, and—unsurprisingly—a flood of cash into risk assets like crypto.

Market intelligence firm Santiment captured the moment, stating:
“Trump’s weekend tariff exemptions have led to an instant crypto market rise… Bitcoin has already hit a high of $85.9K.”

ETF Flows Paint a Contrasting Picture

But here’s the twist—despite the price rally, U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs saw massive outflows leading into the weekend.

According to Farside Investors:

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw its largest outflow yet at $342.6 million.
  
• Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) lost $160.9 million.
  
• Fidelity’s FBTC dropped $74.6 million.
  
• Only Grayscale’s Mini Trust saw inflows of $2.4 million.
  

In total, $707.9 million flowed out of U.S. BTC ETFs last week. Although outflows slowed to just $1 million by April 11, this divergence raises questions: Is this rally sustainable, or is smart money exiting early?

ETF flows remain one of the most reliable indicators of long-term market direction—and right now, they’re flashing a warning.

Bitcoin’s Next Move: $90K or Pullback to $70K?

Analysts remain split on where BTC is headed next.

Bullish scenario: Continued tariff easing, improving U.S. economic indicators, progress on the Bitcoin Act, and renewed ETF inflows could fuel a rally toward $90,000—and potentially the $100K milestone.

Bearish scenario: Renewed trade war tensions, disappointing macro data, or further ETF outflows could send BTC back toward $70,000, with key support levels at $80K and $76.6K.

From a technical standpoint, BTC trades below its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)—typically bearish territory. A break above $86,263 would signal strength and open the door to $90,742, a crucial resistance level. But failure to hold $85,000 could quickly trigger a slide.

Final Thoughts: The Rally Everyone’s Watching—But No One Fully Trusts

Bitcoin’s sharp rally on trade relief news has caught markets off guard. While the excitement is real, the backdrop is anything but stable. With ETF outflows lingering, rate cut bets still uncertain, and regulatory overhangs like the Bitcoin Act still in flux, this may not be the all-clear signal bulls are hoping for.

Still, the next few days will be critical. If Bitcoin breaks through $90K, momentum could take over. But if the price fails to sustain above $85K, the market may have just witnessed another bull trap disguised as a breakout.