Solana ETF Hype Fails to Lift Price: What’s Next?

Solana (SOL) is struggling to gain momentum despite the recent excitement surrounding the potential for a Solana ETF. SOL has remained mostly unchanged, so it begs the question of whether this news has already been priced into SOL. Other macro uncertainty and regulation as well as competing with Ethereum and Layer 2 projects are keeping investors from feeling too confident. 

Will a SOL Spot ETF Finally Ignite a Price Surge?

Talks around a Solana futures ETF have triggered conversations about the next level—a SOL spot ETF. Spot ETFs, unlike futures-based ETFs, would force purchasers to buy SOL directly, creating real buying pressure to increase the price of SOL. The biggest issue, however, would be regulatory risk. Just because futures have been approved does not mean that regulators will approve spot ETFs any time soon. In the long run, spot ETFs could produce stability and credibility for Solana, but custody and compliance concerns could easily slow down the ETF.

Solana’s Future: Innovation vs. Challenges

Despite the current challenges faced by Solana, it is continuing to evolve. Recently, the blockchain experienced 1 full year without a single major outage, further enhancing reliability concerns with this network. Solana and an ecosystem project called Solaxy, Solana’s very first Layer 2, is another attempt to reduce issues with congestion and increase stability in scalability solutions. Solaxy will be able to clear congestion issues with on-chain transactions and create bridges with Ethereum, which seems to be the ticket for Solana to become a competitive force. As we track market fluctuations toward this, technical analysis will be key in evaluating whether SOL is going to break out of the current stagnant price movement or if is on a path to further downside or short-order selling. Now let us look at the charts to determine what’s in store for Solana.

Price Analysis and SOL Price Prediction

The trading session on 21st March started with a trading range following a slight price correction. Within the trading range, the prices hover between $125 and $128. At 02:15 UTC, a death cross formed pulling the prices down slightly but remain within the trading range. By 09: UTC, another death cross formed leading the price to fall to a level of $125. By 11:45 UTC, a golden cross was constructed leading to a price rise to $127. The prices continue to struggle between buy and sell-side pressure leading to prices stuck in the trading range. 

Chart 1, Analyzed by Alokravantmedia published on March 22, 2025.

By 16:40 UTC, a significant buying pressure developed when a golden cross formed leading to a steep price rise in an uptrend channel. The prices continue to rise in an uptrend channel following strong bullish momentum. By the start of the new trading session on 22nd March, the bull run continued to dominate the market. At 08:05 UTC another golden cross formed in an uptrend channel leading the prices toward resistance level.

What Lies Ahead For Sol?

Despite the speculation surrounding an ETF, Solana’s price continues to be stuck in a narrow trading range. A spot ETF would be bullish in the long term, but regulatory issues are still in the way. The lack of price movement in either direction signals that the ETF excitement has already been priced in, or that the broader NFT and crypto hype is stalling market participants. The positive side is that Solana continues to demonstrate resilience through increased network stability and innovation, like Layer 2 solutions to address congestion, and recently with the emergence of Solaxy. Nevertheless, SOL adoption and price action is challenged by competition from Ethereum and L2s. In the short term, technical signals indicate a potential breakout from the current range, but significant resistance will need to be taken out first. The SOL price prediction indicates that traders should monitor confirmation from signals like MACD and RSI to ascertain the subsequent course of action.