When the Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening (QT) in late 2019, Bitcoin’s price journey wasn’t immediate or linear. The balance sheet stopped shrinking around $3.8 trillion, but BTC initially fell almost 35% shortly after QT ended. It wasn’t until the Fed fully restarted quantitative easing (QE)—injecting $3.2 trillion over the next 18 months—that Bitcoin went parabolic, rising from $3,800 to $29,000, a massive 7.6x rally. This historical context reveals a key point: liquidity floods, not QT endings alone, are what ignite Bitcoin rallies.

Fed Set to End QT Again on December 1, 2025

The Federal Reserve is preparing to halt QT for the second time, this time by shifting to reinvestments in short-term Treasuries as money markets tighten. While some traders interpret this as a bullish liquidity signal, economists warn that the immediate effect may mirror 2019—a dip before any upside. However, unlike in 2019, institutional participation is far stronger today through Bitcoin ETFs, corporate treasury allocations, and stable long-term holders. This may reduce the severity of the initial drawdown.

Will Bitcoin Repeat Its 7x Move?

Analysts are divided. One camp expects a similar pattern: short-term volatility followed by a liquidity-driven surge that could send Bitcoin toward $180,000 in 2026. Another group argues that markets are already “priced in” due to the massive post-halving rally of 2025. With global liquidity tightening, ETF inflows rising, and the Fed’s pivot approaching, Bitcoin’s reaction will depend on how aggressively the Fed re-expands its balance sheet—not merely the end of QT itself.