Nearly $10M Lost on Polymarket: A Costly Betting Mistake

Two traders on Polymarket have gambled away nearly 10 million dollars within a month. Lookonchain shared the data, which soon attracted attention to the whole crypto world. Both traders bet high on the basis of sports markets in which odds were almost 5050 and this is very risky. These bets might appear to be safe at the first sight. But the overall outcome demonstrates the extent to which this strategy is dangerous.

Don't place large directional bets at ~50¢ odds.

2 #Polymarket traders bet heavily on sports markets at 48¢–57¢, and lost nearly $10M in less than a month.

0x4924: 346 predictions, 46.24% win rate, -$5.96M in 24 days

bossoskil1: 65 predictions, 41.54% win rate, -$4.04M in 11… pic.twitter.com/s3Ynzi0YVf

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) January 16, 2026

Who were the Traders and How much did they lose

There was a trader, wallet 0x4924, who bet a lot, too many bets in a rather short period. This trader made 346 predictions on various sports markets over the 24 days. The success rate of all those bets was also only 46.24. This cost the trader approximately 5.96 million. Bossoskil1, who was the second trader, was even more aggressive. This trader was able to make 65 predictions in a short period of 11 days. Win rate was less at 41.54 and this resulted to a loss of approximately 4.04 million. The two traders lost close to $10 million together.

Why Polymarket 50–50 Bets Are So Dangerous

Majority of these bets were made at 48 57 price. This implies that there was a slight probability of winning and slightly probability of losing. These were in a simple sense coin-flip bets. At this type of odds there is no way a trader can remain profitable unless he/she wins over 50 per cent of the time. Losses increase exponentially in case the win rate falls even slightly lower than 50. Since the two traders were handling very high sums of money, they could err by a little mistake and the effects were enormous.

Repeating Bets: The Worst of Both Worlds

Repetition was one of the major problems. Betting hundreds of times without a good lead will put one at a higher risk. Although a trader may have won a few times, he can easily lose all his gains. This can be compared to throwing a coin repeatedly and placing higher amounts of money on the bet. Over time, luck runs out. The account will gradually fizzle away to nothing without adequate risk management.

Polymarket is a blockchain-based trading platform, implying that all purchases are transparent. These losses may be viewed in real time by anyone. This transparency demonstrates clearly the failure of bad strategies even in cases where traders are confident. Lookonchain made an example of this case in order to warn. The point is easy to grasp: the huge bets without an advantage are almost always well-meaning.

Such losses are not losses of good fortune. They have to do with ineffective strategy and risk management. Prediction markets might be simple to look at, however, they do not hesitate to penalize mistakes.