Polymarket Bet Against Russia Ukraine Ceasefire Grows After Gold Sale

With only days left before January 31, traders on Polymarket are sending a clear signal. They don’t expect a Russia Ukraine ceasefire anytime soon. At the same time, new data shows Russia is accelerating gold sales to fund its war budget.

Together these developments point in one direction. Markets and fiscal signals suggest the conflict is likely to continue not pause. Polymarket volumes are surging. Russia’s financial buffers are shrinking and confidence in near term peace is fading fast.

Polymarket traders bet heavily against a ceasefire

The Polymarket market asking whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a ceasefire by January 31 is about to resolve. The odds are extremely one-sided. As of January 23, the “No” outcome trades near 98% probability. The “Yes” side sits close to just 2%. Trading volume has climbed into the multi-million-dollar range, showing strong conviction.

User itscherry joined #Polymarket as early as July 2024 but had never placed any trades.

Today, he suddenly spent $46.6K betting on "Russia × Ukraine will not ceasefire by the end of 2026."https://t.co/i5t9yISnoh pic.twitter.com/D1ABa0i7D7

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) January 23, 2026

One trade drew special attention. Blockchain tracker Lookonchain flagged a user known as itscherry. The account had been inactive since July 2024. Then suddenly, it placed a $46,600 bet against a ceasefire. The trader bought over 80,000 “No” shares at around 58 cents each. While prices have moved slightly since, the position aligns closely with the market’s dominant view. 

Analysts covering the conflict also remain skeptical. Most see little chance of a deal without major concessions. With days left on the clock, traders appear confident in their call.

Russia accelerates gold sales to fund the war

At the same time, Russia is drawing down its financial reserves. According to recent Finance Ministry data, Russia’s National Wealth Fund has sold a large share of its gold holdings. Estimates suggest between 60% and 71% of the fund’s gold has been liquidated since mid 2022.

JUST IN: 🇷🇺 Russia sells off 71% of sovereign gold reserves to bankroll Ukraine war effort – National Wealth Fund. pic.twitter.com/s7efs4eoHq

— Whale Insider (@WhaleInsider) January 23, 2026

Holdings reportedly fell from more than 2,200 tons to around 650 tons. Since November 2025 alone, gold sales have raised over $20 billion. The pace has increased in early 2026. Reports point to record daily sales of gold and yuan to cover budget gaps. Western sanctions and weaker energy revenues continue to pressure state finances.

These funds help cover spending needs. Military costs remain a major driver. Infrastructure and banking support also play a role. Still, gold has long served as Russia’s crisis buffer. Selling it at this scale sends a strong signal.

What the gold sale says about the war outlook

Timing matters. Russia is liquidating strategic reserves just weeks before the Polymarket deadline. That doesn’t look like preparation for de-escalation. Instead, it suggests resource mobilization to sustain operations. This supports the heavy “No” positioning on Polymarket. A country preparing for peace usually conserves buffers and a country preparing for endurance taps them.

There is nuance. Russia’s central bank still holds more than 2,300 tons of gold. Rising gold prices soften the blow. But the National Wealth Fund is the most flexible pool of capital and it is shrinking fast. Markets are connecting these dots.

Market outlook as the deadline nears

If current odds hold, Polymarket’s “No” side will pay out strongly. Large bettors like itscherry stand to profit. More broadly, the signals remain aligned. Analysts see low ceasefire odds. Fiscal data shows strain and markets price in continuation, not compromise. As January 31 approaches, traders and observers will watch closely. But for now, money and metals point to the same conclusion.