Pantera CEO Says Bitcoin Should Be $126K Based on 12 Years of Data!

Bitcoin is traded around $81,800 right now, but according to Dan Morehead, Pantera CEO, that’s a massive undervaluation. Pantera Capital is a leading American venture capital and hedge fund firm focused on digital assets. The Pantera CEO believes Bitcoin should be worth over $120,000 today, and possibly closer to $126,000, based on everything that’s happened in the political and regulatory world lately. From big wins in Washington to a clear shift in crypto-friendly policies, Morehead argues that the market just hasn’t caught up. So, what exactly is being overlooked?

A Wave of Pro-Crypto Change in Politics

The Pantera CEO Morehead recently shared his thoughts in a detailed post on X, laying out a scenario that feels straight out of a crypto fantasy. Picture this: a U.S. President who supports digital assets, a red wave flipping both the House and Senate, and more than 50 anti-crypto lawmakers losing their seats. Now, add a series of executive orders that include plans for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and even a U.S. stockpile of other digital assets.

Morehead says if someone had told you this would all happen right before the last presidential election, you’d assume Bitcoin would skyrocket. But since then, it’s only gone up by 24%. “That doesn’t make sense,” he says. In his view, Bitcoin should have reacted much more strongly to these game-changing developments.

Why the Market Might Be Slow to Catch On

Despite all this, the Bitcoin price action has been pretty average. The Pantera CEO notes that Pantera’s own Bitcoin Fund has grown at a steady 83% per year over the past 12 years. So, in a way, Bitcoin’s current rise is just business as usual. He believes the market hasn’t fully digested the scale of the positive changes happening in the U.S., which means BTC is seriously undervalued right now. For investors, this could be a golden opportunity before the market wakes up and catches on.

Short-Term Turbulence Still a Factor

Of course, not everything is pointing straight up. Just recently, Bitcoin dropped more than 7% after former President Trump announced a new round of tariffs. That sudden move reminded everyone that global politics can still shake things up fast. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, chimed in to say traders should be careful in the coming weeks. He identified $76,500 as a key level to watch. If Bitcoin stays above that through April 15, U.S. tax day, he believes we’ll be in safer territory. “Don’t get chopped up,” he warned, reminding traders to stay cautious.

Could the Fed Be the Next Catalyst?

Adding to the mix, Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments raised the possibility of the Federal Reserve stepping in. He pointed out that current economic sentiment is looking similar to tough times in 2000, 2008, and 2022—periods that all led to major Fed interventions. If the Fed turns the money printers back on to stimulate the economy, that could give Bitcoin another big boost. It’s a familiar pattern: When traditional markets wobble, crypto often becomes the place investors turn to for growth.

Price Snapshot: What the Charts Are Saying

On the 5-minute chart, Bitcoin recently broke below a range to test $81,800 support, where RSI indicated oversold conditions and MACD formed a golden cross, sparking a short-term recovery. The Bitcoin Price action has since moved within an ascending channel, fluctuating between $82,300 and $83,500. However, resistance near $83,800 remains unbroken, and overbought RSI levels triggered minor pullbacks. A failure to hold the lower channel could push BTC toward $82,000, while continued bullish pressure may drive a retest of the $84,000 zone. Traders should monitor these levels closely as Bitcoin navigates a macro-driven landscape.

Chart 1, Analyzed by Alokkp0608, published on April 4th, 2025

Is Bitcoin’s True Value Still Hidden?

Dan Morehead’s $120,000+ BTC price prediction might seem bold, but when weighed against rising political support, crypto-friendly regulation, and potential Fed stimulus, it starts to look realistic. Despite these bullish fundamentals, the market remains cautious, still hovering below key resistance around $83,800. Short-term technical analysis shows Bitcoin trading within an ascending channel, with $82,300 acting as support and $84,000 as a near-term breakout target. While $76,500 serves as a critical downside level, both macro conditions and chart signals suggest room for growth. The BTC price prediction indicates that traders should monitor confirmation from signals like MACD and RSI to ascertain the subsequent course of action.