Odds of Bitcoin Hitting 100K in 2025 Drop to 36 Percent on Kalshi

Traders on prediction market Kalshi are turning cautious on Bitcoin near term upside. On December 1, the odds of BTC crossing $100,000 before the end of the year dropped to 36%. That is a sharp fall from earlier confidence levels seen just weeks ago. 

The drop reflects changing sentiment after recent market weakness. Kalshi contracts all trade on probability. A 36% reading means traders now see the milestone as possible. But far from guaranteed. In simple terms, optimism has cooled. Just days earlier, the same market priced the odds closer to 48%. In early November, confidence stood near 60%. The rapid decline shows how quickly the crypto mood can flip.

Shifting Odds Mirror Bitcoin’s Volatile 2025

Bitcoin’s price action in 2025 explains much of the emotional whiplash. The asset spent most of the year making new highs, then pulling back just as fast. In January, BTC surged above $107,800 after a major institutional accumulation event. In May, it climbed past $112,500. Momentum stayed strong through the summer.

In August, Bitcoin peaked above $124,000. Then in October, it broke above $126,000 before sliding back toward the low $110,000 zone. Each surge revived $100K hype. Each pullback weakened it. Even in November, positive U.S. jobs data briefly pushed BTC back above the six-figure mark. Since then, the price has struggled to hold strong upward momentum. That hesitation now shows up clearly in Kalshi’s declining odds.

How Kalshi Pricing Reflects Trader Psychology

Kalshi works like a real-time sentiment mirror. Traders buy and sell contracts based on what they believe will happen next. When fear rises, odds drop. When confidence returns, odds climb. The current 36% reading does not mean Bitcoin “will not” hit $100,000. It only shows that traders now see more risk and less certainty than before. 

Market participants online echoed that view. Some said Kalshi simply reprices fear and greed in real time. Others argued that prediction markets often get most bearish right before strong reversals. Still, several traders warned that markets do not move on hope alone. Liquidity, macro trends and institutional flows still drive the final outcome.

What This Means for BTC Into Year-End

With only weeks left in this year. The path to $100,000 looks narrower than it did earlier in the cycle. Bitcoin would need strong momentum, fresh inflows and clean technical breakouts to change the narrative fast. However, history shows how quickly the story can flip. One large ETF inflow. One inflation surprise. One macro pivot. Sentiment can turn on a single candle.

Currently, Kalshi traders are signaling caution, not collapse. The dream of $100K is still alive. It is just no longer the easy consensus bet it once was. As always in crypto, conviction fades quickly during pullbacks. But it also returns just as fast when momentum wakes up again.