Lance Lambert Breaks Down What the US Housing Market Is Really Telling Us

On June 20, the housing market in the US is a significant indicator of the health of the overall economy, due to changes in consumer confidence, impacts from changes in policy, and differences in relative regional economies. As mortgage rates continue to rise, the activity in the market decreases (or, supply tightens), and the housing market shows what economies do to people’s lives, businesses and their investment decisions. Tracing trends from a regional perspective, like the US housing market, provides a clearer picture of what is occurring and the nuances that are mired in the average values at a national level.

In a masterclass hosted by Lance Lambert from ResiClub, we saw that regional housing market trends can identify the timing and pace of significant factors, such as tariffs and immigration enforcement, as these factors filter through local housing markets. This can be represented in hot metro locations in the Sun Belt and cooling locations in the Midwest and in patterns across the country, showcasing a set of warning signs and growth opportunities across rural and urban America.

By analyzing the economic signals in housing markets regionally, we can better anticipate the overall economy via jobs, inflation, and consumer spending. Whether you’re a homeowner, real estate investor, or policymaker, being able to accentuate a local geography allows you to make better-informed decisions when headline news of a national scale rarely reflects the on-the-ground reality.

Regional Markets: A Tale of Two Americas

Across America, there is a growingchasm between prospering metro areas and stagnant areas. The Sun Belt is realizing amazing home sales and new construction. Much of this is driven by remote work and migration to that region. The older Rust Belt markets, on the other hand, are cooling, stunted by stagnant incomes and slow job growth. As we track the US housing market in different regions, we also see what happens in different local economies and their tax bases.

Tariffs & Construction Costs

Tariffs on building materials such as steel and lumber are raising construction expenses across the country, but these same increases have different implications across the country. Coastal areas, which rely heavily on imported materials and labor, experience price increases more acutely than inland markets, that rely on more regional supply chains. The ramifications of the prices of these materials will influence new housing starts and indicate the next areas where regional markets will pick up steam or slow down.

ICE Deportations: Labor Market Impacts

Lambert emphasizes how immigration enforcement impacts the housing supply in a more indirect manner. In regions like California’s Central Valley or parts of Florida where notably larger immigrant workforces exist, larger displacement events by ICE (U.S. Immigrations and Customs Enforcement) tend to have more severe impacts on construction activity. When construction slows because the availability of labor across the stages of the process slows it’s assuredly going to limit home builds and further decrease inventory. Hence, the regional housing situation acts like the canary in the coal mine; it gives earlier indications of how the shock of immigration policy will play out on Main Street.

Shifts in Buyer Behavior & Migration

The ability to work remotely has changed the nature of migration and housing demand. With the high-cost metros such as San Francisco and New York shedding residents to more affordable cities in Texas, Arizona, and the Carolinas, migration patterns not only push movement to mid-sized cities but also changing housing affordability locally and planning needs for municipalities. Tracking regional housing trends will provide insight into where buyers will migrate to and what infrastructure will come next.

What This Means for the US Economy?

The US housing market doesn’t just reflect regional dynamics, it actively drives them. Housing spending accounts for a sizable chunk of GDP. When regions experience housing booms, job creation follows in construction, retail, and services. Conversely, cooling markets risk stagnation and downward pressure on consumer confidence. By monitoring economic signals at the local level, investors and policymakers can stay ahead of the curve.

Investor Takeaways from Regional Data

As the real estate environment continues to evolve, it is important to look beyond national statistics and identify the local trends that will impact investment performance. Investing regionally is prudent for both diversification and specialization. Investors should not just seek opportunities in the hot coastal locations that have skyrocketed over the last two years; rather, they should look for opportunities in areas that have current growth appealing to in-migration such as the growing Sun Belt region and mid-America.

Investors should continue to pay attention to tariff exposure. For example, markets that are heavily dependent on imported building materials will face undisclosed pressure on construction costs that may affect their profitability. Furthermore, investors should follow labor trends and enforce changes, where the enforcement action or policy change may quickly change labor supply thus restricting housing inventory and new construction timelines.

In today’s world more than ever, it is important to follow where the migration for life, work or both is occurring. The remote work trends in locations not typically seen as primary housing markets are fostering and encouraging new “hot” markets that investors should consider. If investors use these suggested approaches, they can stay adequately informed, localized to their markets, and in a better position to make informed decisions.

Final Thoughts

When dumbed down to a regional level, the US housing market offers significant signals about the economy that affect everything from inflation to infrastructure. As Lance Lambert’s analysis illustrates, tariffs, ICE enforcement, migration, and labor trends differ from city to state, and the local housing trends enable stakeholders, both policymakers and buyers, to have necessary insight in an uncertain economy. 

Looking at the local stories behind national headlines gives us clarity and context. The areas where construction is behind or buyer demand is leading the charge are often the regions that will reference the next chapter of America’s economic story. If you’re looking to get informed and get ahead, you’ll be watching these housing market trends.