Key US Data Points Could Spark Big Bitcoin Moves This Week

With the Good Friday holiday nearing, several US economic reports set for release this week may shape short-term trends in the crypto market. Investors are paying close attention to consumer inflation expectations, retail sales, industrial production, and jobless claims. 

Received during a time with limited trading activity, such price swings in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could be even larger.

Inflation Expectations Could Drive Interest in Bitcoin

Early in the week, the New York Federal Reserve will release its March Consumer Inflation Expectations survey. Consequently, February’s reading rose slightly to 3.1 percent from 3.0 percent. 

Another modest rise toward 3.3% is expected by market participants. Also, a separate University of Michigan survey found consumers expect much steeper inflation in the next year, with a 6.7 percent increase in prices.

Institutional Bitcoin investors expect rising inflation as an impetus for investment, seeing the supply of Bitcoin as fixed. A common view is that it is a means of safe keeping when traditional currencies depreciate in value. But when inflation seems to be accelerating too fast, it’s possible those worries would bleed to the Federal Reserve’s potential response. 

Additionally, investors could begin speculating on tighter monetary policy, which would tend to dampen demand for riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Retail Sales May Signal Shifting Consumer Strength

March retail sales data is due Wednesday, giving a fresh view of consumer activity. The previous report showed spending rising from 1.9% to 3.1% year-over-year in February. Analysts are watching to see if consumer demand remains steady despite ongoing cost pressures and tariff concerns.

If the report shows solid growth, traders might move capital into traditional investments, reducing demand for crypto. However, a drop in spending could suggest a slowing economy, which might lead some to reposition into digital assets. A trader in a crypto-focused Telegram group remarked, 

“If people are cutting back, the market could lean toward assets that sit outside the usual system.”

Factory Output May Affect Confidence in Broader Markets

Also on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will share the latest industrial production data. The February report showed a drop to 0.7%, and this month, analysts expect a small decline of around 0.2%. The report measures activity across manufacturing, mining, and utility sectors.

Continued weakness in production could add to worries about slowing growth. That might encourage investment in alternative assets, especially in blockchain projects seen as disconnected from traditional economic systems. However, consistent declines may also signal deeper market concerns, reducing appetite for speculative coins.

Jobless Claims Could Move Markets in Quiet Trading

Initial jobless claims data arrives Thursday, just ahead of the long weekend. Last week saw a rise from 219,000 to 223,000. Any unexpected jump in new filings might reflect growing stress in the job market.

With many traders off for the holiday, lower liquidity can cause sharper reactions to the data. A sharp increase in claims could steer attention toward Bitcoin as a store of value. At the same time, altcoins could see pressure as traders seek lower-risk positions.