Is the Bitcoin Bull Cycle Over? CryptoQuant CEO Issues a Stark Warning— Will BTC Crash Below $65K?

The Bitcoin bull cycle that many traders expected to continue might already be over, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. He suggests that traditional retail investor activity isn’t visible on on-chain liquidity signals because many retail investors are entering the crypto market trend through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) rather than direct on-chain transactions. This keeps the realized cap lower and makes it difficult to track new liquidity inflows.

Ju points out that 80% of Bitcoin ETF flows come from retail investors. This trend, first observed by Binance analysts in late 2024, shows that many investors prefer regulated funds over direct crypto holdings. The shift to ETFs suggests that retail participation is already happening, but it doesn’t reflect on traditional on-chain liquidity signals.

CryptoQuant CEO’s Bearish Market Outlook

Ju recently posted on X (formerly Twitter), stating that every on-chain liquidity signal suggests Bitcoin is entering a bear market. He believes Bitcoin could experience a prolonged market correction phase, lasting between 6 to 12 months. Ju used principal component analysis (PCA) to examine fundamental indicators such as market value to realized value (MVRV), spent output profit ratio (SOPR), and net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL), all of which are declining.

Let me respond to a few counterarguments:

1/ Retail hasn't entered the market yet based on on-chain metrics

Retail is likely entering through ETFs — the paper Bitcoin layer — which doesn’t show up on-chain. This keeps the realized cap lower than if the funds were flowing…

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) March 19, 2025

He explained that his forecast does not imply a short-term crash but a bearish market for a prolonged period. Bitcoin’s price fell 0.35% over 24 hours recently, staying around $83,000 after temporarily reaching $84,500. The drop is consistent with mounting selling pressure from short-term traders and institutional investors who booked profits at recent highs.

Analysts Weigh in on Future Market Movements

Financial analyst Peter Schiff cautions that the movement of Bitcoin is highly correlated with the NASDAQ. If the market keeps falling, he foresees Bitcoin crashing by as much as 24%, possibly to $65,000. Schiff opines that in the worst-case scenario, Bitcoin may go as low as $20,000 if the market correction phase intensifies.

Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone also voiced concerns, suggesting that the crypto market trend is overheating while gold prices rise. He speculates that Bitcoin could even fall to $10,000 if economic conditions worsen. Meanwhile, other experts argue that Bitcoin could stabilize if institutional investors increase holdings through Bitcoin ETF purchases, providing much-needed liquidity.

Bitcoin Miners and Market Liquidity

The second reason why the Bitcoin bull cycle is coming to an end is miner activity. Recent statistics indicate that Bitcoin miners have been heavily cashing out, selling more than $27 million worth of BTC. The rising selling pressure can also weaken the market, cutting back on new liquidity inflows and supporting Ju’s argument that the market is headed into a market correction stage.

Also, the upcoming Bitcoin halving, set for 2026, will add volatility. Halvings in the past have limited the supply of new Bitcoins to the economy, but their temporary effect generally induces price volatility. Some see it as an opportunity to buy, while others are concerned that rising mining costs will increase selling pressure. 

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

If past trends continue, Bitcoin can be unable to make new highs in the coming months. As the trend in the crypto space is turning towards ETFs, on-chain indicators might not reflect the full extent of retail action. Experts warn that further macroeconomic issues can drive Bitcoin lower, but long-term fundamentals still give hope to some investors. Traders will need to keep an eye on on-chain liquidity indicators for the time being and prepare for a potentially long market correction phase.