Is Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycles Ending? Market Maturity and ETF Boom Reshape BTC Trends

For a very long time, Bitcoin has followed a four-year cycle, driven by the halving mechanism that reduces mining rewards. Traditionally, these halvings have sparked price surges, followed by deep corrections ranging from 50% to 80%. The most recent halving on April 19, 2024, cut block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, with the next scheduled for April 2028.

However, with increased institutional adoption and regulatory shifts, many are questioning whether Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle still holds relevance. Some analysts argue that BTC’s price movements may now be influenced more by macroeconomic factors, such as interest rates and capital inflows, rather than just halvings.

Mainstream Adoption and Institutional Demand

Bitcoin’s market is going through a big change, thanks to the rise of Bitcoin ETFs. Since multiple ETFs were approved in January 2024, more large investors and institutions have entered the market. As of January 2025, the top five US-based Bitcoin ETFs now hold over $126 billion in assets, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading at $47.7 billion. These ETFs have made Bitcoin more accessible, attracting a wider range of investors and even reducing its price volatility. With more buyers in the market, price drops are becoming less extreme, challenging the idea that Bitcoin strictly follows its traditional four-year cycle.

Regulatory Changes and Market Stability

Regulatory development is another factor reshaping Bitcoin’s price dynamics. The US government has shifted its stance on digital assets, with a new “crypto task force” aiming to create clearer regulations. This pro-crypto approach, changes in SEC leadership, signal a more favorable environment for Bitcoin. Former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins will be stepping in as SEC Chair in June 2026, and his view on cryptocurrency could bring major changes. The previous SEC administration, which incurred over $400 million in legal fees for the crypto industry, is seen as crypto-friendly. With fewer regulatory hurdles, big investors and institutions may feel more confident stepping into the crypto space.

The Future of Bitcoin’s Price Cycles

Bitcoin is experiencing a supply shock, with only 450 BTC daily, and demand outpacing supply. CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin available for sale has now reached its lowest level since October 2020. Meanwhile, the accumulator concludes that consistently buying BTC without selling is increasing at record-breaking rates. With Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 in late 2024, and shown a major increase of 5.75x increase since the 2022 cycle lows. The analysts suggest that while halvings may still influence BTC’s price, they are no longer the dominant force. Instead of the economic trends, institutional interest, and regulatory clarity could define Bitcoin’s future.

Conclusion: A New Era for Bitcoin’s Price Movements?

The crypto market is changing, and Bitcoin halving may no longer be the main reason for its price cycles like it once was. With Bitcoin ETFs soaking up supply, major corporations adding BTC to their balance sheets, and clearer regulations taking shape, Bitcoin’s price movements are starting to depend more on the broader economy rather than just the four-year halving event. This shift could mean more stable price cycles or even unexpected 

volatility, as new factors come into play. One thing is certain—Bitcoin is evolving, and its market behavior is becoming more complex as it matures into a globally recognized asset.