Is Bitcoin’s Bull Run Really Over? CryptoQuant CEO Sounds the Alarm

The recent performance of Bitcoin’s market has raised serious alarm among investors and analysts. Previously bullish on Bitcoin, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has now warned that the bull cycle of the cryptocurrency might be over. According to his analysis, Bitcoin might experience a trend of bearish or sideways price movement in the next 6 to 12 months, making traders and investors wonder about the future direction of the market.

Bitcoin’s Current Market Position

In the early Asian trading hours today, Bitcoin dropped by almost 1% to trade around the $81k mark, raising speculation about a possible end to the historic bullish cycle. However, at the time of writing, Coinmarketcap data shows that the flagship cryptocurrency has spiked by 0.96% to trade at $83,196.

Ki Young Ju’s Bearish Outlook

Ki Young Ju, who had previously downplayed bearish concerns, has now reversed his stance. Posting on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Ju stated:

Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action.”

Ju’s analysis points to weakening liquidity inflows and increasing selling pressure from large investors, commonly known as “whales.” He explained that these new whale investors are offloading their holdings at lower prices, which could indicate a weakening market structure.

Why Is the Market Turning Bearish?

Ju’s bearish outlook is based on his analysis of Bitcoin’s Profit and Loss (PnL) Index and other key on-chain indicators. He used Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on metrics like:

• Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) – Measures if Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued.
• Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) – Reflects whether holders are selling at a profit or loss.
• Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) – Indicates the market’s overall profitability.

Decline in Institutional Interest

One of the major reasons why Bitcoin’s weak outlook is because of the decrease in institutional demand. Ju emphasized that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded negative inflows for three consecutive weeks. If institutional buying pressure is weakened, it tends to result in price volatility and higher volatility.

Ju also stated that liquidity inflows are evaporating, which restricts Bitcoin’s capacity to maintain the upward trend. This absence of fresh capital in the market indicates that Bitcoin might not be able to regain its former highs shortly.

Market Skepticism and Historical Patterns

Even after Ju’s warning, there are still some traders who are not convinced. They have indicated that Ju previously gave the same sell signal in 2020, but it did not become a long-term bearish trend.

Surprisingly, historical information reveals that Bitcoin is usually good from April to October. Assuming the trend continues, Bitcoin could level off in the next few months and even set a new all-time high before mid-2025.

Is There Hope for a Recovery?

Although short-term indicators point to a bearish cycle, long-term market trends bring some hope. Historical market cycles have revealed that Bitcoin tends to bounce back forcefully after correcting phases. If liquidity levels are boosted and institutional buying returns, Bitcoin may find fresh momentum and achieve new heights within the coming year.