Fundstrat Flags H1 2026 Crypto Correction, Tom Lee Backs ETH Upside

Fundstrat has warned clients to brace for a meaningful crypto correction in the first half of 2026. Even as its co-founder, Tom Lee, continues to publicly argue that Ethereum is deeply undervalued. The contrast between Fundstrat’s internal strategy note and Lee’s public comments is now driving debate across crypto markets. Traders are asking a simple question. Is this a contradiction, or a timing play?

Fundstrat Targets BTC $60K, ETH $1.8K in H1 2026 Pullback

According to the internal outlook shared by Fundstrat’s digital asset strategy team that highlighted by @_FORAB. The firm expects a deeper drawdown in the first half of 2026 before conditions improve later in the year. The report outlines downside targets across major assets. Analysts project that Bitcoin will revisit the $60,000-$65,000 range. They expect Ethereum to fall toward $1,800-$2,000. Solana could slide to $50-$75.

Fundstrat frames this move as a reset, not a breakdown. The firm believes these levels would create what it calls “extremely attractive positioning” for the second half of the year. The report cites several macro risks. These include renewed trade policy volatility, weaker confidence in AI investment returns and pressure on high-yield credit. Also, political uncertainty ties back to central bank leadership. Together, these factors could weigh on risk assets early in the year.

Tom Lee Says ETH at $3,000 Is “Severely Undervalued”

At the same time, Tom Lee has delivered a far more bullish message in public forums. Speaking recently at Binance Blockchain Week, Lee said Ethereum, around $3,000, is “severely undervalued.” He has previously argued that ETH could reach $15,000 by the end of 2025. While citing supply dynamics, staking lockups and declining sell pressure from miners. That long-term view has not changed.

Importantly, Fundstrat’s internal note does not fully contradict that thesis. It explicitly states that Ethereum should outperform on a relative basis, even during a broader market pullback. The reasoning is structural. ETH no longer faces miner sell pressure. It also benefits from staking-driven supply constraints and steady on-chain activity compared with more cyclical altcoins.

Timing Split Explains the “Two Messages” Narrative

The gap between Tom Lee’s public optimism and Fundstrat’s internal caution appears to come down to timeframe and audience. Specifically, public commentary focuses on long-term value and narrative positioning. In contrast, internal strategy focuses on risk management, entry levels, and client protection. Consequently, several market observers summed it up simply: one view sets sentiment, while the other sets trade. Fundstrat’s base case suggests volatility first, then recovery. If the H1 correction materializes, the firm expects a sharp reversal later in 2026, with Ethereum leading that move. Currently, the takeaway is clear. Bullish long-term does not mean straight up. Moreover, even Ethereum believers must respect the path, not just the destination.