Fed Rate Decision Odds Jump To 96.5% As Court Blocks Trump Tariffs

Financial markets rarely show near certainty, yet traders now price a 96.5% probability that the Fed rate decision will result in no change. This surge in conviction comes despite a major court ruling that struck down former President Trump’s tariffs. Investors quickly recalibrated their interest rate outlook after digesting the legal development and broader economic signals.

Many expected the tariff ruling to inject uncertainty into Federal Reserve policy discussions. Instead, market expectations moved decisively toward stability. Traders interpreted the court decision as unlikely to create immediate inflationary or growth shocks. As a result, confidence in a steady Fed rate decision strengthened across bond and futures markets.

The Federal Reserve now faces a crucial moment. Inflation has cooled from its peaks, yet economic growth remains resilient. Policymakers must balance price stability with employment strength. With the Fed rate decision approaching, investors appear convinced that holding rates steady serves the current interest rate outlook best.

📈UPDATE: 🇺🇸Odds of the Fed holding rates steady have surged to 96.5% despite court striking down Trump’s tariffs. pic.twitter.com/eX3rfAvHuS

— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) February 21, 2026

Federal Reserve Policy Faces A Changing Trade Landscape

The court’s decision to strike down Trump-era tariffs reshapes the trade environment. Tariffs once raised concerns about imported inflation and supply chain disruptions. Removing them reduces immediate price pressures in certain sectors. However, markets believe the impact will unfold gradually rather than suddenly.

Federal Reserve policy depends heavily on data, not headlines. Officials track employment growth, wage trends, and inflation readings. The latest data suggests moderate economic momentum. That environment supports a steady Fed rate decision rather than a quick pivot.

Market expectations reflect that thinking. Futures markets show overwhelming consensus for no change at the next meeting. Investors see little urgency for cuts or hikes. Stability, for now, remains the dominant theme.

Why Market Expectations Remain So Firm

Bond markets often signal shifts before equities react. Treasury yields have stabilized after recent volatility. That stabilization strengthens the case for a predictable Fed rate decision. Investors appear comfortable with current borrowing costs.

The interest rate outlook hinges on inflation trends. Recent reports show price pressures easing but not collapsing. Core inflation remains above the central bank’s long-term target. Policymakers therefore avoid rushing toward rate cuts.

At the same time, labor markets continue to show resilience. Hiring has slowed slightly but remains solid. Wage growth supports consumer spending. These dynamics reinforce market expectations that Federal Reserve policy will stay steady.

A Pivotal Moment For Monetary Stability

Markets now stand at an inflection point. The court ruling created headlines but did not disrupt financial stability. Instead, traders doubled down on the belief that the Fed rate decision will remain unchanged.

This confidence highlights how deeply market expectations align with current economic data. The interest rate outlook shows gradual moderation rather than dramatic shifts. Federal Reserve policy aims to preserve that balance.

Investors understand that central bankers rarely react impulsively. They respond to sustained trends, not single events. With inflation easing slowly and growth holding steady, a pause makes strategic sense.

The coming weeks will test this near certainty. Yet for now, a 96.5% probability signals remarkable consensus. Financial markets appear united behind a steady path forward.