Ethereum Whales’ Unrealized Profit Ratio Drops to Bear Market Levels

Key Points:

• Ethereum whales’ unrealized profit ratio has dropped to bear market levels, increasing selling pressure.
• A head and shoulders pattern suggests a potential breakdown, with ETH’s price target as low as $1,130.
• ETH must hold $2,000 support or risk further downside, despite ETF approvals and Trump’s pro-crypto stance.

The unrealized profit ratio among Ethereum ($ETH) whales has plummeted to levels not seen since the previous bear market, signaling mounting pressure on the second-largest cryptocurrency.

According to CryptoQuant data, large ETH holders—those with 1,000-10,000 ETH and 10,000-100,000 ETH—have seen their unrealized profits turn negative. This means a significant portion of medium-sized ETH investors either bought at higher levels during previous rallies or have held through multiple price fluctuations without selling at a profit.

As a result, these investors may be more inclined to cut losses or reduce exposure if market conditions remain uncertain. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted, “Ethereum is currently going through a difficult period. The ETH/BTC ratio continues to decline, and it’s also facing a phase of rather intense FUD combined with very complex price action.”

Ethereum at a Critical Support Level

ETH’s price has suffered a 35% decline year-to-date, largely due to macroeconomic factors such as U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies and the Federal Reserve’s pause on interest rate hikes. The cryptocurrency has now returned to a historically significant support/resistance (S/R) level that has played a key role in its price action since 2021.

Currently, Ethereum is testing the $2,000 level, which has previously acted as a strong support in bear markets and resistance in bullish phases. If ETH manages to hold above this zone and sees a weekly close above $2,200, it could trigger a relief rally toward $2,500 – $2,750. However, if it breaks below this level, Ethereum could drop toward the previous support range of $1,750 – $1,800, marking a significant bearish continuation.

Ethereum Near a Bearish Reversal Breakdown

A head and shoulders (H&S) pattern has formed on the weekly ETH/USD chart, signaling a potential trend reversal. This bearish pattern consists of three peaks: a higher central peak (head) flanked by two lower highs (shoulders). The neckline—acting as final support—is currently being tested around the $2,000 mark.

A confirmed breakdown below this level could trigger further downside, with the pattern’s projected target suggesting a drop to $1,130—a level not seen since early 2023.

Adding to the bearish outlook, ETH is trading below its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $2,904 and is struggling to maintain support above the 200-week EMA at $2,296. A breakdown below this long-term trendline would validate the head-and-shoulders setup, reinforcing a potential shift toward a broader bearish phase.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also hovering around 37.49, indicating oversold conditions. However, without a strong bullish reaction at these levels, Ethereum’s price could continue its decline, aligning with the head-and-shoulders target.

Conclusion

Ethereum’s current market position presents a critical juncture for investors. While the asset remains under significant pressure, a decisive move above $2,200 could signal a short-term recovery. However, failure to hold above the $2,000 support could set the stage for a deeper correction toward the $1,130 mark. As Ethereum whales’ unrealized profits turn negative, the coming weeks will determine whether ETH can stabilize or succumb to further selling pressure.