Ethereum Price Surge or Collapse? Why $1,850 Is the Make-or-Break Level for ETH

Ethereum faces difficult conditions, plunging to levels not seen since early 2023. This week, it fell below $1,380, causing widespread concerns among investors. This movement represents a more than 33% drop from late March’s value. It reverses a months-long Ethereum bullish trend and puts ETH at a crucial turning point. Observers now question if the long-standing bullish trend holds or if this decline signals a more severe breakdown.

This downturn comes amid global macroeconomic strain. Financial uncertainty worldwide, growing concerns about a Trump trade war, and persistent inflation create a challenging climate for risk assets. Capital is moving from volatile instruments, placing ETH under considerable pressure. However, some on-chain metrics hint that a recovery might be approaching despite the pessimism.

Downside Momentum Accelerates as Support Levels Break

Falling below $1,500, a key psychological and technical point, marked a pivotal shift for Ethereum’s recent performance. Market participants hoped this zone would provide strong support, but events unfolded differently. This digital currency currently trades near $1,600 after recovering from a low of $1,396 yesterday. The fluctuating price has reduced optimism about ETH’s potential in 2025, causing concern even among experienced holders.

This drop arises from macroeconomic trends that are not directly related to crypto. Worries over inflation and a potential recession drive investors away from speculative holdings. Ethereum, previously considered a promising long-term investment, faces selling pressure as funds move toward safer alternatives. Based on the latest ETH price prediction, continued market swings and an absence of bullish momentum leave this digital currency exposed to more potential declines unless a stabilization point emerges.

Ethereum Trades Below Realized Price: A Hidden Signal?

Though the technical charts appear unfavorable, some analysts see a contrarian opportunity. Ethereum currently trades under its realized price near $2,000, a historically rare indicator. Data from CryptoRank, analyzed by Carl Runefelt, suggests that similar situations frequently occur before major market turnarounds. A comparable event happened in March 2020 when ETH fell steeply before launching a significant rebound.

🚨 #Ethereum is below the realized price of $2,000! This is a rare event. The last time this happened was in March 2020, when ETH dropped from $283 to $109.

Notice how quickly $ETH recovered. pic.twitter.com/6zPB8lFc5y

— Carl Moon (@TheMoonCarl) April 9, 2025

Runefelt believes this unusual on-chain data might indicate ETH is moving into an accumulation phase. This suggests that long-term investors might be quietly purchasing Ethereum at these discounted levels. Despite the generally poor market sentiment, this hidden activity could lay the foundation for a future Ethereum price surge if macro conditions improve and confidence begins to return.

Reclaiming Key Resistance Is Crucial for an Ethereum Price Surge

Any bullish scenario requires Ethereum to surpass immediate technical barriers. The $1,850 price level, once a solid support, has transformed into a resistance point. Unless ETH decisively reclaims this mark, upward price trends are likely to be short-lived. Bearish forces will likely persist without a strong move above this resistance level.

Additional downside risk exists if Ethereum drops below the $1,380 threshold. Analysts warn that a breach of this psychological support could lead to a deeper correction toward the $1,100–$1,200 area. Traders watch for near-term signs of stability in this context. Investors seek evidence confirming a longer-term bottom has formed. Uncertainty dominates the market for now, and ETH’s future direction remains closely connected to broader economic developments.

Path Ahead: Reversal or Prolonged Weakness?

The next few weeks represent a crucial period for ETH. Maintaining its price above realized levels and retaking important resistance zones might lead to an Ethereum bullish trend. However, given the fragile market sentiment and increasing macroeconomic challenges, Ethereum must show resilience under pressure. ETH price prediction suggests that if accumulation trends are confirmed, an Ethereum price surge may begin to take shape.

Nevertheless, market participants should proceed carefully. Technical weakness and persistent volatility suggest ETH might remain under pressure for some time. Investors must prepare for more fluctuations, seeking confirmation from price movements and on-chain data whether Ethereum establishes a durable bottom or pauses before further declines remains an open question.