Ethereum (ETH) at a Crossroads: Open Interest Hits Record High, But Can Price Keep Up?

Ethereum is in the spotlight after ETH open interest in futures reached a record high. Now all eyes are on what will happen next for the second-biggest cryptocurrency. Generally, increasing ETH open interest implies greater market activity, but the price action of ETH says otherwise. Ethereum has dropped 28% in the last month, while the broader crypto market dropped only 14%. Just recently, ETH has gained another 6% from March 19 to 21 and failed to break through resistance at $2,050.

ETH Open Interest Surges, But Price Struggles

The appetite for leveraged long positions in ETH has fallen while institutional interest has remained strong, with the futures premium falling below 4%. This shows traders are becoming more cautious with their bets instead of looking for a major rally. It will be interesting to see if the coin price will catch up with the increase of activity in the ETH futures market, or if the market is preparing for more downside.

ETH’s Next Big Move: Will Bulls Take Control or Bears Drag It Lower?

While Ethereum’s transition to proof-of-stake and enhancements to scalability have improved the network, some investors are surprised ETH hasn’t had an increase in price following these upgrades. Reducing transaction fees via layer-2 solutions raises concern that Ethereum’s core revenue that supports developers is dwindling. As Ethereum struggles to reclaim key resistance levels, traders are looking to technical indicators like RSI, moving averages, and support levels to gauge the next move. Up next, we’ll break down the charts to see where ETH might be headed next.

Price Analysis and ETH Price Prediction

The trading session on March 21 opened with a moderate downtrend channel indicating market cautiousness toward the coin. The key resistance and support levels stand at $1992 and $1942. At 01:20 UTC, a death cross formed on the MACD line solidifying the bearish sentiments in the market. The buy side tried to gain the hold when a golden cross formed at 04:00 UTC but bearish momentum prevailed. By 10:00 UTC, another death cross was constructed on the MACD plunging the prices with a spike to the key support level of $1942. 

Chart 1, Analyzed by Alokravantmedia published on March 22, 2025.

Finally, a clear golden cross formed, corroborated by the previous oversold signal leading to a fresh bull run in an uptrend channel. The price fluctuated within the uptrend channel but continued to rise towards the resistance level. By 21:35 UTC, a death cross formed leading to a slight fall but was quickly overwhelmed by a golden cross at 23:15 UTC. By the start of new trading session on 22nd March, the uptrend channel continues to follow. The buy side continue to dominate the market reaching to the resistance level by 09:10 UTC.

ETH Bulls Gain Strength, But Caution Remains

The recent price movements of Ethereum (ETH) have shown a mix of stability and fluctuations. Following what appeared to be a strong bearish trend on March 21, further re-confirmation of buy-signal activity was provided by a number of technical indicators such as the MACD and RSI. This sudden price action had ETH retracing higher. While the early reaction signs were bullish, the market remains apprehensive. With the ETH open interest futures setting another record high, suggesting expansive institutional participation, there has been a somewhat dampened leveraged longs demand, signaling uncertainty to overcome. The ETH price analysis suggests that a sustained breakout above the key resistance level would strengthen the bullish momentum and will enter a new key support and resistance level. However, a fall below the Key support level could also result in consolidation of prices. The ETH price prediction indicates that traders should monitor confirmation from signals like MACD and RSI to ascertain the subsequent course of action.