Crypto Market Forecast: China’s Tariff Response Could Trigger Crypto Surge, Says Arthur Hayes

As the U.S. and China clash once again over trade, all eyes are on the financial ripple effects, and according to BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes, cryptocurrency may emerge as a surprising winner. Hayes believes that any aggressive move from China, especially involving currency devaluation, could result in a major capital shift into digital assets like Bitcoin.

Tariffs, Trade Wars, and the Yuan

Tensions between the U.S. and China have reignited with the Biden administration’s announcement of a fresh wave of tariffs on Chinese goods, aimed at protecting domestic industries like green energy and semiconductors. China is now expected to respond, and one of the strongest tools in its economic playbook is the yuan.

Devaluing the yuan would make Chinese exports more affordable on the global market, helping the country stay competitive. But there’s a trade-off. Such a move could trigger fear among Chinese citizens and investors about the future value of their savings, pushing them to seek more stable or growth-oriented assets elsewhere.

That’s where crypto enters the picture.

A Pattern from the Past: Devaluation Drives Bitcoin Interest

Hayes argues that we’ve seen this story before. Back in 2015, when China unexpectedly devalued its currency, Bitcoin saw a sharp increase in activity from Chinese users. A similar spike occurred in 2019, when the yuan crossed the psychologically important 7:1 ratio against the U.S. dollar. Within days, Bitcoin surged more than 20%.

Why? Because when local fiat currencies lose purchasing power, people tend to look for alternative stores of value. And despite its volatility, Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement, especially in countries with strict capital controls.

Crypto as a Gateway for Capital Flight

China has long imposed tight restrictions on how much money its citizens can move out of the country. This makes it hard for investors to protect their wealth during economic uncertainty. Cryptocurrencies, by their decentralized nature, offer a workaround.

With blockchain-based assets, users can bypass traditional banking systems and quietly transfer value across borders without the oversight of state institutions. Hayes suggests that if China begins to devalue the yuan again, we could see a significant spike in demand for digital assets, especially from high-net-worth individuals looking to quietly hedge their risk.

Looking Ahead: Trade Policy Meets Crypto Demand

While it’s impossible to predict how the situation will unfold, one thing is clear: the intersection of global politics and decentralized finance is more relevant than ever. As China weighs its options in response to U.S. tariffs, investors around the world are watching not just for changes in commodity prices or stock markets, but for the next big move in crypto.

If Hayes is right, the coming months could see a renewed surge in Bitcoin adoption, particularly from regions grappling with currency instability. Whether as a store of value, a political escape hatch, or simply a hedge against chaos, crypto continues to solidify its role in the global financial system.