Crypto Market Crashes After Trump Tariffs — Will April 4 Fed Speech Trigger a Bitcoin Price Surge?

April 2 marked a crypto market crash caused by Donald Trump’s implementation of tariffs on almost every country. In response to this move, risk markets like crypto and stocks crashed hard, wiping out trillions in the process. Bitcoin, which had reached above the $88,000 price, had a sharp decline but managed to remain above $82,000. Since then, the Bitcoin price surged, trading at $83,058 as of writing this. Whether Bitcoin can recover from Trump tariffs or not depends on two macroeconomic events: April 4 Fed Powell Speech and NFP data.

Can BTC Recover from Its Recent Decline?

Today is also shaping to be a bearish day for BTC, as its value has decreased 0.1%. Additionally, because of the April 2 crypto market crash, Bitcoin price is recording a 3.0% weekly decline. Today’s price also shows a 23.6% decline from Bitcoin all-time high of $108,786. Ironically, this surge was also caused by Trump as BTC soared above $100,000 before Trump’s inauguration on Jan 20. However, now many believe that his aggressive economic policy will lead to further declines in global markets. 

The Tariff Effect: How Trump Caused a Crypto Market Crash

US President Donald Trump implemented his tariffs, which he believes will equalise the playing fields on the so-called liberation day. Imports from more than 100 countries, including China, India, and countries which are part of the European Union, have been tariffed. Similar to what was seen in the previous months, when he gave similar announcements, the US market has reacted negatively. The US stock market recorded over $1.3 trillion of liquidations, while the crypto market had over $500 million of liquidations. Additionally, the prime cryptocurrency also reacted strongly, dropping from $88.5K to $82.1, recording a 7% fall. 

What Does the April 4 Fed Speech Mean for Bitcoin?

As such, we now have to see if the Bitcoin price surges or the economic events will crash it further. This is because these two events will set the market sentiment until another important catalyst unfolds. Investors should be careful as the April 4 Fed Powell Speech and NFP data might add to the bearish pressure. ADP jobs data, which has been announced to be higher than projected, will likely differ from the Nonfarm Payrolls. The NFP is projected to be lower than last month, going from 151K to 80K. This decrease also increases the pressure on the Fed.

Graph 1 – Provided by CMETOOL, published on cmegroup.com, April 4 2025

Based on Graph 1, the CME tool shows that market participants give a 65.4% probability that rates will remain the same. However, based on this data, there is also a 34.6% probability of a rate cut. This would change the current rates from 4.25% to 4.50% to 4.00%—4.25%. This brings us to today’s second important macroeconomic event, the April 4 Fed Powell Speech. The Fed chair’s speech might give us clues on possible future changes in policies and interest rates.

Arthur Hayes’ Forecast: What’s in Store for BTC on April 15?

We also have some Bitcoin price predictions by iCrypto industry experts and veterans. Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, which Trump recently pardoned, gave his forecast of the BTC market. He stated that “if BTC can hold $76.5k now and on US tax day April 15, we’re out of danger.”. Another crypto expert named RektProof also gave a similar projection, saying that Bitcoin will go down to $76,000. He also called this possible dip one of the best buying opportunities.