Crypto Crash or Comeback? CZ’s Take on When the 2025 Altseason Starts & What to Expect

Despite widespread predictions of an Altseason, it has not yet started, leaving many to wonder about the conditions needed for when the 2025 Altseason starts. Numerous altcoins show ongoing weakness, even with market rebounds. Changpeng Zhao (CZ), co-founder of Binance, observed that only a small percentage of altcoins surpassed Bitcoin (BTC) ’s performance over the previous three months. Though optimism exists, data paints a different picture of current altcoin market conditions.

CoinMarketCap (CMC)’s newly launched Altcoin Season Index provides a quantifiable method to evaluate whether conditions exist for a true Altseason. However, the Index currently suggests that broad-based altcoin gains remain unlikely. Disagreements remain among traders and analysts regarding whether a market floor is near or whether deeper retracements lie ahead.

CZ’s Take on the Current Market Trends

In a post on X, Binance founder CZ commented on anxieties surrounding Altseason, citing CMC’s new Altcoin Season Index. Highlighting the challenging conditions for alternative cryptocurrencies, the Altcoin Season Index reveals that only 14 of the top 100 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin in the last three months, raising concerns about when the 2025 Altseason starts. The official Altseason criteria, requiring at least 75% of top altcoins to outperform Bitcoin over 90 days, gives a benchmark for analyzing Altcoin market performance in 2025. The Index currently shows a score of just 14/100, signifying significant headwinds for alternative cryptocurrencies.

So, @CoinMarketCap has a new feature about Alt Season. Of the top 100 altcoins, how many of them out performed bitcoin in the past 90 days. I think this is a tough ranking system. 50 is probably a really good score. 😄 https://t.co/wSz6wPoXjU pic.twitter.com/FTvd30VKvc

— CZ 🔶 BNB (@cz_binance) March 7, 2025

Among the altcoins that demonstrated stronger relative performance were Monero (XMR), Hyperliquid (HYPE), Pi (PI), and the Trump-themed meme coin (TRUMP). Conversely, major players such as Solana (SOL) and SUI have experienced considerable drops of roughly 37% to 41%. Established meme coins like PEPE, FLOKI, and BONK endured more severe losses, sometimes reaching up to 80%.

Analysts Weigh In on the Altcoin Outlook

Despite fleeting rallies, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe emphasizes the prevailing downward trend in the altcoin market. He notes their enduring bearish pattern on long-term charts, regardless of minor gains in some cases. Analogously, Altcoin Sherpa parallels the current situation and the Summer 2024 retracement, implying historical precedent for notable recoveries even following comparably discouraging slides.

Deviating viewpoints also factor in external influences unique to the present cycle. Regulatory ambiguities and the absence of strong drivers akin to last year’s “Trump Pump” are being considered as factors that change historical cycles and models. Whether the altcoin market has reached its lowest point is debatable; predictions range from an impending floor to warnings of increased instability ahead.

The Path to Recovery for Altcoins

Amid current market pressures, opinions from experts like CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju express measured optimism. Ju posits that Altseason may have started but deviates from historical patterns, making it more challenging to foresee Altcoin market performance in 2025. Ju shifts the emphasis from the standard Bitcoin-to-altcoin rotation to the role of trading volume as the primary factor. Ju stresses that the Altcoins set to thrive will be those with stronger backgrounds and those most poised to create value, making this cycle less forgiving.

Trading volume represents one element. However, market mood, macroeconomic shifts, and regulation will also govern altcoin performance. Significant altcoin adoption in step with institutional engagement might demonstrate grounds for a continued positive trend. Despite such conditions, the momentum necessary for sustained Altseason development will demand concrete developments for future projections.

Navigating the Uncertain Crypto Landscape

With market bottom opinions differing, navigating altcoins demands caution. Some analyses hint at easing downward pressure, while others foresee further risks. The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index provides guidance, but current values don’t signal an imminent Altseason. Informed investment and data review are key to spotting opportunities as the crypto market evolves. Regardless of whether the Altseason is near or far, preparedness for varied outcomes and adaptability to changing trends is vital for all, especially while planning strategies for when the 2025 Altseason starts.