Clarity Act 2026: Polymarket Predicts 53% Chance of Passage

Polymarket users now give the Clarity Act a 53% chance of becoming law by the end of 2026. This marks a 12% increase in predicted odds, reflecting growing optimism among traders. The prediction comes amid over $35,000 in trading volume on the platform.

The Clarity Act, formally known as H.R. 3633, aims to bring clarity to the US digital asset market. It passed the House of Representatives in July 2025 with bipartisan support. The vote tally was 294 in favor and 134 against.

How the Clarity Act Would Work

The Act is designed to divide regulatory authority between two agencies. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would oversee security-like assets. Meanwhile, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) would handle commodity-like digital assets.

Supporters believe this split would reduce confusion. It would help crypto companies know which rules apply to their projects. Clearer regulations could also encourage innovation and reduce the incentive to operate offshore.

Recent Setbacks and Optimism

In January 2026, a planned Senate Banking Committee markup was canceled. Despite this, insiders remain confident. They report that compromises between lawmakers could still ensure the Act’s passage.

Prediction market activity seems to reflect this sentiment. Traders are betting that the US will provide clearer crypto rules, which could strengthen the domestic digital asset market.

Why the Clarity Act Matters

The crypto industry has long faced regulatory uncertainty. Many projects risk violating laws unintentionally. Clear guidelines would make it easier for startups to launch compliant platforms. Investors would also gain confidence in the legality of US-based crypto projects.

Policymakers say the Act is necessary to balance innovation and investor protection. By specifying agency roles, it aims to prevent overlap, delays, and confusion in enforcement.

What the Clarity Act Could Mean for Crypto

If the Clarity Act passes in 2026, the US digital asset market could see a lot of growth. Clear rules may encourage more projects to operate domestically instead of moving abroad.

Meanwhile, prediction markets like Polymarket provide a unique view into public sentiment. The 53% odds indicate cautious optimism. Market watchers will continue tracking legislative developments as the year progresses.