‘China’s Tariff Response Could Skyrocket Bitcoin Price by 20%!’: Says Arthur Hayes

As economic tensions escalate between the United States and China over trade tariffs, it could work out in favor of Bitcoin and the crypto market. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes has suggested that China’s tariff response may lead to significant capital inflow for crypto assets.

Yuan Devaluation: A Catalyst for Bitcoin Price Flight?

In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on April 8, Hayes pointed out that if the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) devalues the yuan as China’s tariff response, it could prompt Chinese investors to seek refuge in Bitcoin. “If not the Fed, then the PBOC will give us the yachtzee ingredients.”, he wrote. He noted that similar situations played out in 2013, 2015, and 2019 when Chinese capital flowed into crypto markets in times of yuan devaluation.

If not the Fed then the PBOC will give us the yachtzee ingredients.

CNY deval = narrative that Chinese capital flight will flow into $BTC.

It worked in 2013 , 2015, and can work in 2025.

Ignore China at your own peril. pic.twitter.com/LAOeQZEjZt

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 8, 2025

Bybit CEO Ben Zhou echoed this sentiment, stating that in the past, yuan devaluation has driven Chinese investors towards Bitcoin as a hedge. For instance, in August 20215, the yuan saw its largest single-day drop in decades after being devalued by 2%. This led to increased Bitcoin activity. Similarly, when the yuan fell below the 7:1 ratio against the U.S. dollar in 2019, Bitcoin prices surged by 20% within a week. 

Translation: US vs China Tariff war … China will try to lower RMB to counter the tariff, historically, whenever RMB drops, a lot of Chinese capital flow into BTC, bullish for BTC. https://t.co/OQ4wtSdDWQ

— Ben Zhou (@benbybit) April 8, 2025

“$CNY Deval is On!” – Hayes on X

Hayes went on to post the news of the official yuan devaluation. The People’s Bank of China has set the fixing at 7.2038 per dollar on Tuesday. This move, according to Hayes, is going to bring a fresh wave of optimism for the Bitcoin price. With the Yuan now devalued, analysts believe that Chinese investors will turn to cryptocurrencies to fight inflation and shield their assets from their government. 

$CNY deval is on like donkey kong! pic.twitter.com/64W6GWsOk0

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 8, 2025

These developments come in as Trump vowed on April 7 to impose severe tariffs on China, making Beijing respond by declaring it ‘a fight to the end’. With trade tensions rising, all eyes will be on how the Bitcoin price reacts to China’s tariff response. Given that, let’s take a look at Bitcoin’s performance on the charts in recent times. 

BTC Price Analysis: Bitcoin Recovers From ‘Black Monday’

Bitcoin began trading at $78,478 yesterday. The RSI had reported oversold conditions late on the previous day, calling for an uptrend. Bitcoin rose quickly towards the $79,900 resistance. But the buying pressure lost steam before touching the resistance. A death cross was observed at 2:15 UTC, taking BTC into a downtrend. By 7:05 UTC, Bitcoin had dropped to a concerning $74,567. With the market heavily oversold, a trend reversal occurred, taking Bitcoin up to establish resistance at $77,500. 

Chart 1: published on TradingView, April 8, 2025

The Bitcoin price faced rejection at $77,500. Its initial attempts failed to breach the resistance, but a few attempts later, Bitcoin spiked up to $81,200 – thanks to the golden cross at 13:50. The RSI indicated overbought conditions at this point,  as a price correction arrived on the back of a death cross. Bitcoin fell, finding a reversal at $77,500. Since then, the support levels have been seen climbing. Bitcoin ascended and finally found resistance at $80,900. The overbought levels warranted another correction, but Bitcoin was able to find support at $79,600.

BTC Price Prediction: Will Bitcoin Capitalize on the Bullish Conditions?

The market crash caused massive drops in value for Bitcoin, but the recovery has been nothing short of commendable. As of now, Bitcoin tests the $79,600 support. But the EMAs look like they’ll form a death cross soon, so expect Bitcoin to break support. But if it is able to stage an uptrend, the $80,900 resistance will be an easy level to break for Bitcoin.