BTC: Bearish or Bullish? Bitcoin Market Prediction Signals a Major Price Shift—Are You Ready?

Bitcoin price action in 2024 followed a cycle of sharp gains followed by prolonged consolidation. Markus Thielen from 10x Research believes the market is repeating last year’s trends. Last year, after peaking in March, Bitcoin experienced a steep drop, lasting several months, and only rebounding in November. Since January, Thielen has predicted this cycle, reinforcing his view that Bitcoin’s price is following a repeating pattern. Evaluating Bitcoin’s technical indicators, Thielen points to signs of market hesitation; this uncertainty is also reflected in Bitcoin ETFs.  

BTC’s Rollercoaster: Will History Repeat Itself?

According to the 10x Research Markus Thielen’s analysis, the possibility of a repeat in 2024’s Bitcoin price action is high. BTC spent most of the last year in consolidation, although it reached its ATH in the starting months of the year. March 2024 marked the month when BTC reached $73,679, and then it fell and traded near $20,000 for months. This slump period for Bitcoin came to an end in November with the hype of Donald Trump’s reelection. 

Market Indecision: Is Bitcoin’s Bullish Momentum Fading?

The 10x Research mentioned that he has been thinking about a possible repeat in this pattern as early as January. In January, BTC once again experienced growth and reached an all-time high of $109,000. This was caused by Trump’s inauguration and the hopes for his immediate start of crypto-friendly policies. As such, he says the repeat of a mirror pattern is   “Very possible.”. Based on this pattern, Thielen mentions that it is likely that in the short term, Bullish sentiment will be weak. Stating,” Therefore, it may be prudent to close short positions at this stage.”.

Chart 1- Provided by 10x Research, published in Tradingview, March 15, 2025.

Based on Chart 1, provided in his March 15 BTC market prediction, Thielen also highlights the market indecision. He points out that the current BTC chart has a “High and Tight Flag” pattern, which usually is bullish. However, rather than being a sign of a continuing price increase, it can be interpreted as a bullish trend’s weakness. “Two flags instead of a single, precise formation weakens this setup,” he stated. Adding, “As a result, the pattern currently suggests market indecision rather than a straightforward bullish consolidation,”

Bitcoin ETFs Show Weak Buying Interest

When analyzing the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, he also pointed out the lack of bullish momentum. This was apparent as although the price has now consolidated at a  low, and investors lacked the buy-in, the dip sentiment. Thielen explained, “This aligns with our view that most ETF flows came from arbitrage-driven hedge funds.”. Further adding, “Given the persistently low funding rates, there’s little incentive or willingness to deploy additional capital despite the recent price correction,” 

Bitcoin’s 23% Drop: A Sign of Extended Consolidation?

This report comes at a time when the price action behavior reaffirms this analysis. Farside data shows that Bitcoin ETFs have seen a total of $1.66 billion in outflows since March started. The start of March also saw the value of BTC drop under the $90,000 support point. At the time of writing, Coinmarketcap shows that BTC is trading at nearly $83,845.30. This equals a nearly  23% decline from the all-time high reached in January. As such, the BTC market prediction shows that consolidation is likely to continue as Trump’s tariffs continue to create turmoil. 

Bitcoin’s Struggles: a Long-Term Surge on the Horizon?

The weakness of bullish momentum in BTC price action and short-term movement shows investor caution. Moreover, ETF outflows can lead to low funding rates, limiting fresh capital and keeping the short-term outlook uncertain. Yet, a long-term surge remains possible if macroeconomic conditions shift favorably and BTC follows its 2024 pattern. Short-term fluctuations, however, will persist, but past trends show Bitcoin’s long-term rebounds after corrections.