The years-long quest for the approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the United States may be coming to an end this year. Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have raised the odds of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot Bitcoin ETF to 75% amid Grayscale’s recent court victory.
Approval May Come Before Year’s End
The analysts previously predicted a 65% chance of success that the SEC approves the Bitcoin-focused financial product. The financial experts noted that, although they weighed the possibility of Grayscale getting a green light from the court when giving its 65% odd, “the unanimity & decisiveness of ruling was beyond expectations, ” leaving the SEC with “very little wiggle room.”
NEW: @JSeyff & I are upping our odds to 75% of spot bitcoin ETFs launching this yr (95% by end of ’24). While we factored Grayscale win into our prev 65% odds, the unanimity & decisiveness of ruling was beyond expectations and leaves SEC w “very little wiggle room” via @NYCStein pic.twitter.com/IyEGmWjuHa
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 30, 2023
On August 29th, a U.S. federal court ruled in favor of the investment company Grayscale, giving a clearance for the firm to convert its Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into spot Bitcoin ETF and offer it to investors. Grayscale has spent over a year seeking the SEC’s approval to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF.
Balchunas terms the federal court’s ruling regarding Grayscale’s petition as a “legal loss” for the SEC. He adds that the angle through which prominent media outlets covered yesterday’s Grayscale news further puts the SEC at a loss, consequently making the agency’s possible application denial “politically untenable.”
Bloomberg analysts added in their comments that the odds may well increase to 95% by the year-end.
SEC Approval Likely Not Coming Right Away
Balchunas and Seyffart commented that the financial agency may likely not give a green light for Grayscale to offer its spot Bitcoin ETF soon. The duo suggested that the SEC may even delay giving its approval, as it did with the Ark 21Shares spot Bitcoin ETF application earlier this month.
Nonetheless, analysts expressed optimism in the long haul:
“[Probably] more likely we wake up one day and hear SEC has given in and launch imminent.”
Grayscale is not alone in the fight, as several other financial companies also have pending spot Bitcoin ETF applications submitted to the SEC. The regulatory agency has endorsed none of these applications.
