BlackSwan’s Vandell Reacts to Altcoin Season Claims and Bitcoin Dominance

Responding keenly to the emerging speculation that altcoin season has dawned, Vandell, the co-founder of BlackSwan Capitalist, has dismissed the claims as ‘absolutely clueless’. His comments follow a situation in which Bitcoin is still a strong player in the market. With Bitcoin now taking up 64% of the crypto market, Vandell has highlighted how, in the past, altcoin seasons developed differently. He has further noted that we are still not experiencing the proper environment for an altcoin rally. This article discusses Vandell’s reasoning, the factors of bitcoin dominance, and when the next altcoin season can take off.

Vandell Criticizes “Altcoin Season” Forecasts

In his X post, Vandell has warned that anyone who claims an altcoin season is beginning now lacks the knowledge of how the cycles of the crypto market work. Altcoin seasons do not commence until Bitcoin dominance reaches its peak and subsequently drops sharply by 10-20%. Usually troughing at levels around 35% to 50%. Today, at 64% of Bitcoin dominance, we are still far from seeing such decline.

Bitcoin dominance refers to the proportion of Bitcoin’s market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market. When Bitcoin takes over the field, its power is palpable, and people tend to rush towards Bitcoin in times where the market is unstable for stability. However, when the dominance of Bitcoin ceases, capital starts flowing into altcoins, causing an increase in price on some altcoins. This is when altcoin season starts.

Vandell’s words imply that we are in the horse phase. This is where Bitcoin is driving the charge, and altcoins are not experiencing the inflows seen during the altcoin seasons of the previous year. According to his analysis, the market is still on a Bitcoin bull run. Investors should only expect altcoin rallies once Bitcoin’s dominance has receded significantly.

Bitcoin Dominance and the Macro Factors Driving Crypto Markets

The dominance of Bitcoin at 64% plays a period in determining the current market condition. Those days of Bitcoin dominance as a strong predictor of where the market is heading are in the past. At Bitcoin’s cycle highs in dominance, it typically implies the end of a Bitcoin bull run. As Bitcoin consolidates and starts to retrace, capital flows into altcoins causing the prices to rise.

As Vandell notes, the market is being pushed by macro factors instead of altcoin-specific catalysts, implying the megatrends, rather than altcoin-specific factors, are at play. With yet more institutional players and big investors rushing into Bitcoin, it still dominates. However, this trend is going to change when when Bitcoin starts to experience it inevitable correction phase and altcoins will be given a chance to steal the headlines.

When Will the Next Altcoin Season Begin?

In the opinion of Vandell, the altcoin season will not begin until sooner or later Bitcoin crashes heavily. He expects a 2025 Bitcoin pullback that will prepare the ground for the next altcoin spread. This is going to happen when Bitcoin has lost its dominance by 10-20 percent and investors start to pour capital into altcoins.

When this pullback is timed properly, it will become essential for the crypto market as it will indicate when altcoins begin to appreciate. Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and other main altcoins stand to profit when the liquidity shifts from Bitcoin. Traditionally, altcoins have always done better than Bitcoin during these market phases, with the altcoins experiencing some massive price increases as the new capital comes into the space.

The second altcoin season is deeply expected by investors. This is because it can provide substantial yields for those, who will consciously choose the right altcoins. Bitcoin will have to suffer a major dip before the altcoin season launches.