Bitwise Doubles Down on $200K Bitcoin Price Prediction as Dollar Weakens Under Trade Tensions

Despite market volatility and growing geopolitical strain, institutional investment firm Bitwise remains confident in its Bitcoin price prediction of $200,000 by the end of 2025. The reaffirmation comes as U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive global tariff strategy puts further pressure on the dollar, creating ripple effects across traditional and crypto markets alike.

Weaker Dollar Could Strengthen Bitcoin, Bitwise Argues

In an April 9 blog post, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan highlighted that the recent downturn in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) could serve as a tailwind for Bitcoin. “Dollar down equals Bitcoin up,” Hougan said, emphasizing how BTC tends to benefit during periods of greenback weakness.

The U.S. Dollar Index has dropped over 7% since the beginning of 2025, and with recent comments from White House adviser Steve Miran criticizing the dollar’s role as the global reserve currency, the outlook remains shaky. Miran warned that the dollar’s dominance has created “unsustainable trade deficits” and harmed U.S. manufacturing, signaling a shift in economic philosophy.

Bitcoin as a Hedge Against Global Reserve Uncertainty

Hougan sees this moment as more than just a short-term trading opportunity. According to him, a fractured global reserve system could emerge in the long term, with Bitcoin and gold playing increasingly important roles as alternative hard assets.

“Governments and companies turn to the dollar for international trade because of its stability. When that stability comes into question, they have to look elsewhere,” Hougan explained. He envisions a world where Bitcoin functions as a co-reserve asset alongside gold, especially as confidence in fiat continues to erode. This sentiment has been echoed by other industry players, including VanEck, which recently cited reports of China and Russia settling energy trades in Bitcoin—a move interpreted as a hedge against growing global trade instability.

Market Rally Hints at Recovery After Pullback

Despite a recent correction of 32% from its January 20 all-time high, Bitcoin has shown signs of recovery, climbing back to $81,700, a 7.5% gain in 24 hours. This rebound suggests that traders are beginning to reprice in macro factors, including liquidity conditions and the Federal Reserve’s potential policy shifts.

Popular crypto analyst Will Clemente took to X (formerly Twitter) to reaffirm his bullish stance, calling Bitcoin the “fastest horse” in this macro cycle. “Economic uncertainty and deglobalization are positive for BTC,” Clemente noted, alluding to Bitcoin’s unique position as both a liquidity proxy and geopolitical hedge.

Conclusion

As the global economy reshapes under tariff tension and a softening dollar, Bitwise’s $200K Bitcoin price prediction may not be as far-fetched as it seemed months ago. With institutional voices citing fundamental shifts in global trade and monetary systems, Bitcoin appears well-positioned to benefit from increasing distrust in fiat and centralized control. Whether or not Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of the year remains to be seen. However, if macro conditions continue aligning in its favor, Bitwise’s bold forecast could serve as a self-fulfilling prophecy fueled by global capital realignment.