Bitfinex Warns of Flat November as Macro Uncertainty Clouds Bitcoin’s Rally

Bitcoin has often enjoyed strong rallies in November, with traders viewing the month as a turning point before the year ends. Historically, November has delivered consistent double-digit gains for Bitcoin, boosting market optimism. But 2025 may not follow that familiar pattern. According to a new report from Bitfinex, the Bitcoin price trend may remain sideways this November as macro uncertainty dampens investor enthusiasm. With inflation data, interest rate decisions, and slowing global liquidity in play, the usual year-end Bitcoin surge may hit a pause. Investors who once saw November as a month of profit may now face a phase of consolidation instead.

The report draws attention to the way increased market caution, decreased trading volume, and general risk aversion could limit bullish momentum. While Bitcoin has strong underlying fundamentals and increasing institutional interest, external factors could prove to be stronger than the historic optimism this time.

🚨 NEW: Bitfinex warns macro uncertainty could signal sideways $BTC price action in November, breaking from historical November gains.

Will Bitcoin defy the pattern? pic.twitter.com/aw4n8la0XE

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) November 12, 2025

Macro Uncertainty Takes Center Stage

According to Bitfinex analysts, global macro uncertainty is the main reason for the expected flat price performance. Inflation remains sticky in all major economies, necessitating a longer period of tight policy from central banks. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s cautious tone, combined with slower economic growth in Europe and Asia, has resulted in traders being skittish about risky assets like crypto.

The environment has also led to lower liquidity in markets as investors shifted to safer assets like bonds and gold. Investor market behaviors have meant less cash is flowing into digital markets, and Bitcoin’s typical rally that occurs in November may not gain its usual momentum. Bitfinex noted that cautious traders will prioritize stability over speculation and will wait for clearer signs of economic progress before entering significant Bitcoin positions.

Investor Sentiment Shifts Towards Caution

Market sentiment has cooled in recent weeks, even after Bitcoin’s brief rally above $105,000. Analysts attribute this to a growing divergence between Bitcoin’s fundamentals and the broader financial climate. The macro uncertainty around interest rates and liquidity is making institutional investors more hesitant.

Bitfinex notes that large Bitcoin holders, often known as whales, have reduced their accumulation pace. This suggests a “wait and watch” approach as they evaluate how global financial markets respond to new economic data. Retail traders, too, have become more cautious, avoiding leveraged positions that could lead to losses if the Bitcoin price trend turns volatile.

This cautious sentiment could lead to a “sideways market” scenario, where Bitcoin trades within a narrow range throughout November, frustrating both bulls and bears.

Conclusion

Bitfinex has a neutral bias, although it considers potential catalysts to reignite Bitcoin momentum. Should a more moderate inflation reading or dovish Fed signal develop, positive sentiment could swiftly return. The same also holds true for institutions emerging with renewed interest, or news relating to ETF approvals, quickly adding the potential for fresh optimism into the market. 

Analysts also believe that any improvement in global liquidity or a rally in risk assets could lead to more positive trends in Bitcoin price. However, without these catalysts, positioning is likely to consolidate before a set-up for a potential breakout in December post post-position consolidation.

For longer-term investors, this provides the opportunity to accumulate at lower levels of volatility. While it is still uncertain in the short term, the Bitcoin adoption story remains intact with continued institutional interest and innovation in digital assets.