Bitcoin’s Price Swings to $82K — Will It Drop Further or Rebound?

Bitcoin’s price swings have fueled debate as economic uncertainty grows. A sharp BTC drop, combined with a weakening US Dollar Index, has confused analysts on future trends. Some expect a bullish rebound while rising treasury bond volatility and widening corporate bond spreads create concerns. Despite uncertainties, market expert Jamie Coutts highlights historical patterns that suggest Bitcoin still has growth potential. Despite this, Ongoing economic instability and financial market fluctuations will continue shaping Bitcoin’s short-term price movements.

BTC Takes a Hit: 25% Below ATH-Recession Fears Grow

As the worries of another recession continued and the global trade war gained momentum, BTC experienced a fall again. As the weekend was ending, BTC was trading around $86,000 for hours. However, it experienced a sudden fall to the $82,000 range, recording a 5% decline in just a few hours. With this latest value reduction, BTC has fallen 25% under its all-time high of 109,900. Bitcoin hit its all-time high on January 20, which makes it a 0,5% decline per day as of March 10.

The US dollar index has also taken a hit from the world’s economic chaos. DXY has fallen seven points from 110 in January to 103 in March 10. The fall of the DXY has historically led to rallies in BTC’s market. As such, many analysts are expecting a bullish movement in BTC’s price. One such analyst is the Chief Crypto Analyst at Realvision, Jamie Coutts. In his X post, Coutts writes that “Bitcoin is like playing a game of Chicken with central banks.”. 

Investors Steering Away from Risk Assets Like Bitcoin

Coutts writes that now key variables can change the central bank’s policy and lead to changes in the BTC market. Based on his analysis, the decreasing dollar value can lead to a bullish trajectory for Bitcoin. However, he mentions that the increase in treasury bond value fluctuations and corporate bond spreads is worrying. He highlighted that US Treasuries work as a global collateral. If risk and volatility increase, lenders put large haircuts collaterals and, as such, create a decrease in the collateral asset’s value. This will also tighten liquidity, putting more pressure on the market.

Graph 1- Provided by Jamie1Coutts, published in Tradingview, March 10, 2025.

Based on Graph 1 US, investment-grade corporate bond spreads have been widening in the past weeks. Based on Coutts’ analysis, this means that investors are distancing from yields that are compressed relative to treasuries. As such, demand for risk assets like cryptocurrencies is decreasing, and consequently, BTC will be negatively affected by this trend. Despite these bearish indicators, Coutts’ analysis shows some silver linings.

Bitcoin’s Next Boom? Why Analysts See a Bullish Future

BTC’s mid-term prospects remain positive as the US dollar is experiencing rapid plunging. Additionally, he noted that March’s decline marks one of the dollar’s worst months in the past 12 years. Based on his research, all such dips have led to bullish momentum in Bitcoin’s price. “They have all occurred at Bitcoin bear market troughs (inflection points) or mid-cycle bull markets (trend continuations),” he added. The other variable for a bullish movement in BTC price is global adoption. Coutts believes a worldwide race for BTC adoption is starting, with more countries set to create reserves or increase mining.

Will Bitcoin Rebound? Key Factors to Watch 

The future remains unclear as economic shifts and market instability influence Bitcoin’s price swings. Short-term price swings may continue as financial markets struggle with uncertainty. However, Bitcoin’s mid-term outlook appears stronger if institutional interest and global adoption rise. Investors must stay alert, watching central bank policies, treasury yields, and liquidity trends. If the dollar continues weakening and Bitcoin adoption expands, renewed growth could follow.