Bitcoin’s Big Reset: Is the Next Bull Run Around the Corner?

Bitcoin’s journey through early 2025 has been nothing short of a rollercoaster. On January 17, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost highlighted a significant milestone: Bitcoin’s open interest surged to an all-time high of $33 billion. This figure indicated heightened leverage and speculation in the market. However, a sharp downturn soon followed, triggered by political uncertainties tied to former U.S. President Donald Trump’s actions. As a result, between February 20 and March 4, the market saw nearly $10 billion in open interest wiped out, signaling a substantial liquidation phase.

Though alarming in the short term, such corrections often serve as a necessary reset. Bitcoin’s 90-day futures open interest dropped by 14%, historically a precursor to market stabilization before a strong rebound. Analysts view this phase as a cleansing of excessive speculation, paving the way for more sustainable growth.

A Bullish Outlook Amidst Volatility

Despite the recent pullback, long-term projections for Bitcoin remain optimistic. Economist Timothy Peterson suggests that Bitcoin typically experiences its strongest seasonal gains in April and October. Based on his latest analysis, Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs before June, with a median price target of $126,000. His “Lowest Price Forward” model, which estimates a potential price floor for Bitcoin, now suggests that $69,000 is a level that has a 95% probability of holding firm. If history is any indication, previous bull cycles have seen similar corrections before resuming their upward trajectory.

Potential Risks and Bearish Signals

Not all experts are entirely bullish. Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, recently expressed concerns that Bitcoin’s bull cycle could face challenges if it dips below its 2024 highs, which hover in the lower $70,000s. Citing the cycle of Bitcoin in 2017, Cowen observed that the cryptocurrency already retraced last year’s high when it had its worst plunge.

According to Cowen, if Bitcoin ends up in the lower $ 60,000 level, then the current bull market will be over. Or, a break above the $70,000-$73,000 level would maintain the bullish setup of the market. If Bitcoin fails to hold these levels towards the second half of the year, then this could be the formation of a macro lower high, and that could lead us to a more bearish expectation towards the third quarter.

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $83k, experiencing a defining point of its market cycle. The recent plunge could be a necessary ground for long-term growth, with previous market resets triggering strong recoveries. History repeating itself, Bitcoin could be setting the stage for another bull run in the coming months.

For investors, this time is both a warning and an optimistic opportunity. Although short-term fluctuations are a worry, the general market indicates that Bitcoin is still likely to increase in the long term. It is not certain whether Bitcoin will experience its typical large recoveries or if it will deviate from previous trends. However, savvy investors know that with cryptocurrency, patience can bring rewards.

With April just around the corner and historical data pointing to potential gains, all eyes will be on Bitcoin’s next moves. Will it surge to new highs, or will bearish signals take hold? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: the coming months will be crucial for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.