Bitcoin Price Prediction: 2 Hidden Signals Point to a BTC Price Surge by April

Bitcoin maintains its position over $80,000, trading near $83,800 on April 5 despite escalating trade risks and a faltering stock market. This level shows a 9% recovery from the March low, outperforming standard indices like the Dow Jones, which shed over 1,000 points for two consecutive days. The Nasdaq 100 has slipped into bear market status, off 20% from its yearly high. Two macroeconomic signals—U.S. Treasury yield and the Fear and Greed Index—suggest the leading cryptocurrency might be preparing for a bullish move.

Falling bond yields and rising market fear could drive the next BTC rally. The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell under 4%, signaling recession worries that might lead the Federal Reserve toward actions like interest rate cuts or quantitative easing. Such measures have historically propelled BTC price upward during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index stands at 25, while the CNN index has plunged to 4, reflecting the panic that often comes before a market turnaround.

U.S. Treasury Yield Hints at Fed Intervention

Bond yields are trending lower; the 10-year yield dipped below 4%, the 30-year is at 4.40%, and the 2-year stands at 3.57%. The bond market reflects growing economic unease, often a signal for Fed intervention. Rate cuts or easing have historically boosted liquidity, driving investors toward risk assets like Bitcoin, as seen during the Global Financial Crisis and 2020.

The real plan all along was to lower interest rates and lower oil prices as soon as possible.

The 10-year note yield is down -90 bps and oil prices are down -25%.

The tariffs are "working" as planned. pic.twitter.com/PaZRoQ7RL1

— Adam Kobeissi (@TKL_Adam) April 4, 2025

BTC technicals align with this potential. It holds above its 50-week moving average and has been within an ascending channel since October 2022. Bitcoin price prediction suggests that if the Fed responds to recession signals, this cryptocurrency could resume its upward trajectory, capitalizing on increased market liquidity and the diminished appeal of fixed-income assets.

Fear and Greed Index Flags a Turning Point

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 25, indicating “extreme fear,” yet analyst Lark Davis attributes this to recency bias—where Bitcoin’s 11.4% year-to-date decline overshadows its long-term gains. Historically, such low readings have marked buying opportunities, reflecting Warren Buffett’s advice to “be greedy when others are fearful.” The index was neutral when BTC traded at $65,000 six months ago, highlighting this disconnect.

The CNN Fear and Greed Index’s plunge to 4 mirrors broader market panic. Despite a 4.5% weekly drop, Bitcoin stays above $80,000. Michael Saylor argues its volatility, driven by 24/7 liquidity, doesn’t undermine its long-term store-of-value role, suggesting fear-driven sell-offs could soon give way to a rally.

Macro Dynamics Boost Bitcoin’s Case

Falling yields and fear could combine to lift Bitcoin. In his Bitcoin price prediction, Arthur Hayes notes that a weakening dollar—tied to foreign sales of U.S. tech stocks—often boosts Bitcoin. He predicts the pain caused by Trump tariffs may force money printing—a boost for BTC, as seen in past dollar declines. This prediction aligns with the cryptocurrency’s technical uptrend near the ascending channel’s base.

Bitcoin’s resilience contrasts with stock market problems. A 1% daily dip persists for this digital currency, but low yields and peak fear suggest a rebound if panic subsides. Hayes sees medium-term gains as global imbalances are corrected, potentially injecting liquidity into Bitcoin and gold and reinforcing their appeal.

Bitcoin’s Next Move in Focus

Bitcoin’s stability above $80,000 amid stock market chaos underscores its growing hedge status. Falling yields and extreme fear could trigger Fed action, historically a catalyst for Bitcoin rallies. Given these economic signals, investors may soon pivot from panic to aggressive buying.

President Trump tariffs add uncertainty, but with yields signaling a Fed intervention and fear at its peak, Bitcoin is poised for potential gains. Whether fear turns to greed depends on Fed moves and broader market sentiment, with Bitcoin price prediction expecting a possible breakout if rate cuts occur.