Bitcoin Price Analysis: On Average, BTC Gains 20% Every October. Will History Repeat Itself?


Bitcoin formally resumed its bullish round during the previous intraday session. There were fears of massive retracement following two days of consistent price decreases. However, the most recent green candle offers comfort.

It is also interesting to note that BTC had a similar start during the previous month. Trading action soon caused the asset to dip and fail to record any notable gains. It ended September with losses exceeding 3%.

The market was mostly stable with regard to the fundamentals. Nonetheless, many expected that ether’s merge would have a positive impact across the crypto market. This never happened as more downtrends followed.

The only positive news that made the round was that Microstrategy increased the worth of BTC it has by $6 million. There were also several small news stories but none had any good effect on the apex coin performance. Will the same happen this month?

Based on fundamentals, the future (the next 25 days) remains blurry.  One reason for this conclusion is the lack of any massive fundamentals shaking the market soon. Nonetheless, one of the most significant stories last month was the Fed’s increasing interest rates.

It is worth noting that there is no Federal Reserve Board for October that could spread massive FUDs. Additionally, Glassnode recently reported that BTC’s hashrate reached a new high. This may be an indication of better price performance ahead. How will the price react?

Bitcoin is in a Make or Break Phase

The apex coin is at a critical stage at this time. One reason for this conclusion is the bearish flag on the weekly chart. Expressing similar concerns, a Twitter user, Kevin Svenson, said any upside movement may result in a long-term breakout.

He also voiced his opinion over the bearish sentiment amongst traders. To understand the severity of the period we are in, let’s look at the accompanying chart.


We observed that the is a clear bear flag at on the weekly chart which may automatically mean that the asset is due for an uptrend. However, taking into consideration that a good number of retail traders are contemplating selling their bags may mean another round of downtrends.

This phase may be more severe than the previous one. The Relative Strength Index seems to agree with this prediction. We may expect a small price decrease before the breakout. A look at the Moving Average Convergence affirms that the corrections may be short-lived.

We observed that the 12-day EMA and the 26-day EMA are both on the uptrend. The metric also continued from its previous bullish convergence. How well will prices perform this month?

Welcome to Bitcoin Third Best Performing Month

The previous statements were indecisive but tilted mostly to the bulls. This may be the final nail to the coffin with regard to the question of whether October will be bullish or bearish. Historically, following bad price performance in September, the next 30 days are mostly filled with notable price increases.

A closer look at the chart above reveals that since its introduction to the market in 2011, it only recorded notable losses in the tenth month of 2018. The rest were bullish with significant price increases.

The highest it gained during this period is 48%, while the biggest loss is 4.5%. On average, the apex coin gains 21% every October. Will history repeat itself? Let’s take a look at the daily chart.

BTC set to Flip Key Levels

There are several indications that the apex coin is gearing up for some massive upward move. One such is the Moving Average. BTC tested and flipped the 50-day MA for the first time in more than fourteen days.

Previous attempts at this level yielded results but for a short period of time. It remains to be seen if this trial may be the same. Nonetheless, we observed a spike in RSI trajectory. The metric is at 56 and may continue its uptrend.

Another bullish indicator is the Moving Average Convergence Divergence. Before now, the 12-day EMA was gradually losing momentum and dipping. There were fears that bitcoin may experience a bearish convergence.

However, the most recent surge has resulted in a change in trajectory. The most recent price increase also ensured a test and flip of the pivot point at $20,100. The Pivot Point Standard certified that BTC had just entered another bullish phase.

Key Levels to Watch

Vital Support: $18,000, $15,000

Vital Resistance: $23,000, $25,000, $32,000

Further expressing how critical the current situation is, the number of support has reduced. Nonetheless, one of the biggest levels to watch is the $18k support. Currently exchanging at $20k, any correction should send the apex coin as low as the barrier.

The mark is one of the toughest on the list. It endured several tests over the last three months. It’s one of the few levels to watch bank on when things go south. However, depending on the selling pressure, we may expect a flip.

In the event of the said level flipping, another critical level to watch is $15k. It has only been under test once in the last twelve months. Interestingly, it held out. On the flip side, we may expect more uptrends.

One of the key levels to watch when this happens is the $23,000 resistance. We have seen the apex coin flip $21k numerous times and it almost means a sure retest of $22k. We also observed several attempts at $23k which failed.

To achieve a flip, BTC must build up momentum between $21,500 and $22,500. Successfully breaking this barrier may result in a retest of the $25k resistance. Although unrealistic at this time, the $32k resistance remains the toughest on the list.

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