Bitcoin is holding the $8,000 ($8,100 at the time of writing) support level although some experts are wondering for how long will it manage to keep this price range and suggesting we’re going back to a bearish market.
Limited volatility and a path sideways are rarely good for any asset and as we are experiencing a clear descending triangle, the odds are that we might go down further.
The question is how much and for how long?
Since losing the $8,600 level three days ago, Bitcoin dropped to the high $7,000 again ($7,990 to be precise) and since then has been trading sideways between this range and $8,200.
A break above the $8,300 needs to happen for the market to become optimistic. Other than that if we touch $7,800 we might well go down to the next support level of $7,300.
Trader analysts are divided though. Willy Woo and Tone Vays are pretty much bearish and in a recent live YouTube live session, they even discussed the price going as down as $4,500.
This may come as a surprise since the next halving event has always been promoted as a bullish momentum for Bitcoin. Although the 2016 having event was characterized first by a bearish phase in 2015 which developed into an all-time high only two years later, in 2017, when the top cryptocurrency reached $20K.
Therefore, if we go with statistics, we should be expecting a few more months of a bearish trend for the crypto market and only one year and a half following the halving we could expect new all-time highs. That will lead us to the end of 2021.
In a tweet on 18th November Willy Woo viewed the market going into the halving with a bearish set up as opposed to previous events that according to the analyst were bullish. He said, “We have gone $14k->$7.5k and that’s killing off weak miners who are dumping and dying.” He continues by saying that mining action is bearish while investor action is neutral at the moment.
On the other hand, experts like Datadash, who hosts one of the most popular YouTube crypto channels, believe the opposite has happened in previous events when the price action in the months leading to the halving had always been bearish.
During his YouTube episode, Datadash said we’re in the range of three times the price of last year’s bottom of $3,100 and this is more than we saw in the 2015 bear market when it took longer to reach the same gains.
“Miners profitability chart shows we’re back to the January low levels and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Everyone, even the miners themselves, expects the weak ones to be killed off by Bitcoin price action. That’s a natural progression in the space, therefore we should not be worried much about it.”
In the meantime, trader and creator of the Stock-To-Flow Bitcoin analysis PlanB tweeted that we might see a +2% difficulty adjustment tomorrow, Thursday 21st November, prompting it might be the start of a new bullish action for Bitcoin.
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