Bitcoin ended the first quarter of 2022. Price most definitely didn’t go as planned for the bulls planned as Bitcoin closed the past three months almost the way it started. It failed to retest $50k since losing the mark during the first week of the year.
Recall that a previous analysis stated that the apex coin will face intense bearish actions during the first quarter. Although it has recovered, the effect of the various retracements that hit the market is irreversible.
For example, almost $1 billion worth of long positions was REKT on January 20 as BTC plunged below $35k. We may conclude that the bears had it easy as a little more than $300 million worth of short position got liquidated on March 27 as recovery was under way.
The figures contained above are the highest REKT funds in 24 hours over the last 90 days. The total lost capital over the period is estimated to be above $7 billion. Away from the derivatives, a outlook for the previous month contained some predictions that took place.
It stated that Bearing in mind that the third month of the year does not see a massive uptrend, we may expect a 2%-10% increase. BTC closed the last 30 days with a more than 5% increase.
The analysis ended by adding that a test of the $50k resistance is unlikely as the largest cryptocurrency may experience strong bearish actions at $48k. Bitcoin dipped to a low of $32,950 and hit a high of $48,234.
Evidently, the apex coin failed to retest $50k. Will that happen this month and how will price actions in April affect the second quarter? Let’s take a look at the prospect for the fourth month of the year.
Bitcoin Will Flip $50k
The next 30 days are looking promising as several indicators point to further price increases. A closer look at the chart reveals several bullish signals that could signify the end of the bearish grip on the market.
For example, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints a bullish divergence on the weekly chart. This is good news as a bearish interception was seen in November and the market was hit by a lot of corrections to this effect.
With the latest readings, we may look forward to more uptrends over the next 29 days. Additionally, the top asset is trading above the 50-MA – an indication of further price increases. However, April will not offer smooth sailing for the bulls.
On the 1-day chart, we observed that BTC will experience a bearish convergence which may result in downtrends. This means that the during the first few days of the month, BTC will remain under bears’ grip. How low will the apex coin dip?
It remains to be seen how strong the dominance will be. However, the $44k support is one level to watch as we’ve seen more than three rebounds at the mark. The $42k support is guaranteed to hold and we see a trend reversal at between this level and $40,000.
Nonetheless, this will not hinder a retest of the $50k resistance. The $48k resistance is one of the toughest obstacles to this bid. Recent attempts at this mark have succeeded but not for long prices retraced.
Once BTC gains stability above $48,000, we may see a retest of $50,000. To further support the claims of an uptrend, we look at previous records.
April is the Profitable Month of the Year
Since its introduction to the market, bitcoin has experienced eleven Aprils. Of all these months, only three came out negative as the top coin failed to surge. However, the highest loss was in 2015 as it lost 9%.
The highest BTC gained during this period is 261%. On average, the largest cryptocurrency gains more than 27% every April – the highest of the year. The margin between the highest gains and the lowest loss is due to strong demand concentration during this timeframe.
We may see such a concentration over the next 29 days that will result in the top coin flipping various resistance. Additionally, based on the average, BTC may experience a 10% – 30% increase that may guarantee a close above $50k. Market fundamentals are almost bullish as at the time of writing. How could this affect prices?
Greed may Return to the Market
Currently at 50 (neutral), the fear and greed index has been above 47 since March 26. It peaked at 60 and dipped as low as 21. The most recent state of the market no doubt thrilled the bulls and has set them in high spirits for the next 30 days.
Last month, we heard rumors that Mexico is considering adopting bitcoin has a legal tender. If that happens, this will cause a surge in price and an increase in the fear and greed Index.
How Will this Affect the Second Quarter?
We observed how January was for bitcoin. It failed to surge and dipped to its lowest in more than three months. This bad start to the quarter saw BTC experience a death cross that sealed the bearish dominance.
We also see a reverse of that event over the next 29 days as the 50-MA is recovering. Although not certain of a golden cross this month, we may see both MAs converge and record notable price increases that may spell goodwill for the top asset.
