Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Sees Bad Start to November. Will It Revert to Moonvember?

Bitcoin trading

Bitcoin price action was filled with a lot of uncertainty. The massive anticipation traders had at the start of October was one of the biggest for more reasons than one. Historically, it is the most bullish period for the asset.

Several actions took place during the last 30 days that dashed this optimism. One of them was the sideways trend that took place for the most part of the period under consideration. If the pattern never changed, the 10th month may have ended with no notable losses or gains.

The last seven days were the most bullish as BTC broke free from the trend. The week ended with more than 5% gains, almost the same on the monthly candle. No doubt, fundamentals played a key role in price movements last month. Will it be the same in November?

Consumer Price Index Could Cause Massive Downtrend

The top coin kicked off the current month with no notable increases. It is down by a few percent as it gradually loses momentum. The coin may resort to trading sideways for another period if market conditions do not change.

One of the foreseeable factors that could cause change are fundamentals. With the month still fresh, there are a few foreseeable ones. One such is the release of the Consumer Price Index for the previous 30-day period.

There are indications that CPI may also increase as the Fed announces an increase in interest rates. Based on recent events, we saw the impact such may have on the price of some crypto assets including bitcoin.

The last release was on October 13 and BTC dipped to a low of $18k from $19k. With the coin gradually losing momentum, we may expect worse. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the next announcement of this index will be on November 10.

Aside from this news, there are other events slated for the current month by the World bank. Let’s see how they play. The question on every trader’s mind is how will BTC perform over the next 28 days. Let’s look at previous performances.

November is the Second Most-Bullish Month

Historically, the eleventh month of the year is one of the most positive months for bitcoin. It is the second most-bullish period and traders are hoping history repeats itself. A closer look at the chart below depicts the reason for such a conclusion.

Since 2010, the highest loss the apex coin had in November is 37% while the highest increase is 55.5%. It was mostly bullish as only three months were negative. It is also worth noting that 2021 was one of the bearish periods.

There is no set pattern to the losses, however, it is important to bear in mind that the last time it had such a decrease, the next year was also a red. There are various indications that this may be a Dumpvember.

Bitcoin Reverts to Previous Pattern

A closer look at the price chart since the start of the year reveals a trend before a massive retracement. The chart below sheds more light on this trend and how it may affect the apex coin over the next 28 days.

Examining the image above, you’ll observe three drawn curved patterns. These drawings signified price action. We also observed a line above it that marked a vital level. BTC tested $45k three times with little success.

However, after it successfully flipped and gained stability above it, it experienced massive downtrends that ended in May. As a result, the asset fell below $30k. A repeat of this trend happened between August and September.

This time, the resistance was $24,100. It tested twice before finally breaking it and gaining stability above it on the third attempt. We noticed a drop to $19k after this event. Currently, this pattern is unfolding.

The resistance to watch is $20,500. Bitcoin attempted to break the barrier twice already, with the second trial being the most successful. A third shot at the highlighted mark could send the apex coin above $21k.

As with previous patterns, another massive downtrend is almost certain to unfold. Recovery is one of the events many are looking forward to. Previous price movement placed rebound at three weeks after the final attempt. Other factors like indicators could hint at when the third trial will take place.

An Impending Bearish Divergence

A look at the indicators below portrays the main reason for this concern. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence is hinting at further downtrends. We observed that the 12-day EMA is dipping and may intercept the 26-day, signaling a bearish convergence.

Aside from this, we noticed a correlating drop in buying pressure that may facilitate the expected massive downtrend. Nonetheless, the bearish round may last for a  short period of time before the attempt at the $21k resistance.

Additionally, the metric may continue to trend between 40 and 65 before a major breakout to the top or below. The question on every trader’s mind at this time is how low will the apex coin drop?

Key Levels to Watch

Vital Support: $19,000, $18,000, $16,000

Vital Resistance: $21,000, $23,000

Although the expectations for the current month are not as robust as the previous, we may expect small uptrends that may ensure the flip of the $21k resistance. Flipping this mark may guarantee an attempt at the $23k barrier.

However, to achieve this, the top coin must build momentum above $22k. With threats of a bearish reprisal, we may expect bitcoin to dip as low as $19k. It may trade sideways above the mark for a few days before breaking it.

The next support is $18k. It is also one of the toughest as it held out against several attempts since June. We may expect a short rebound before it breaks. Previous price movements hint at the massive demand concentration at $17,500.

There are indications of a deeper low before the end of the crypto winter. This hints at BTC finding support between $16k and $14k

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