The past month has been one that many would love to forget as Bitcoin failed to surge. The asset dipped to its lowest in more than 16 months. Opening the 30-day session at $37,680 and peaking at $40,000, BTC was on its way for more price increases.
However, the apex coin was met by strong resistance that saw it retrace to a low of $25,401 but closed at $32,762. The distance between the opening price and closing signals a more than 15% decrease.
Traders at the start of that month were confident of further price increases. Unfortunately, price movements during that period suggest it didn’t go their way. June started with renewed hopes.
Like the previous session, bitcoin is not performing as expected by the bulls. The cryptocurrency is down by more than 8%. Will there be an even deeper low than last month’s? What would be the lowest or highest BTC could attain this June?
Will Price Performance Worsen
Bitcoin is currently significantly down. It remains to be seen if the top coin will recover or continue downtrend. However, we will be looking at some metrics that could hint at price actions.
One such is the Fear and Greed Index. At the start of May, the indicator was at 22, which showed little fear amongst traders, but this sentiment changed as the crypto market picked up momentum.
The metric peaked at 28 and was headed towards the neutral region but stopped as market trends changed. In response to the shift in market conditions, various cryptocurrencies started a downtrend.
The downtrend lasted weeks and the top coin failed to recover. One popular trend during the period under consideration is the massive large wallet inflow. The total number of bitcoins that were transferred from huge wallets to exchanges was over 300,000. While the outflows were lower.
We are seeing a repeat of the past month’s performance as the amount of BTC flowing into market places is increasing by the day, and there are minute outflows to counter this effect. Going by this previous statement, we may conclude that there may be a repeat of the past month’s price actions.
Another indicator we will be looking at is the monthly price performance.
Bitcoin Experiences More Prices Increase in June
The sixth month of the year is considered a period during which the apex coin experiences considerable price increases. A closer look at the chart below reveals that of the eleven June since bitcoin’s introduction to the market, five came out negative.
The highest BTC gained during this is 92% while it lost more than 29%. However, the asset increases by 10% on average. If the mean surge plays out during the current 30-day period, we may expect a retest of the $30,000 resistance and attempts at further barriers.
Based on the large wallet inflow, the above scenario seems very unlikely. Nonetheless, we’ve never seen a three-month consistent drop from bitcoin. A negative close will break that record as the coin is currently down by more than 10%. Unfortunately, there are still indications of further retracements.
BTC Just had a Bearish Divergence
A closer look at the charts reveals that bitcoin has failed to record any price increases over the last five days. This has resulted in the apex coin Moving Average Convergence Divergence experiencing a bearish divergence.
This is bad news for the bulls as this event may mark the beginning of harsher market conditions and more selloffs. The Relative Strength Index is also recording a significant change in its trajectory as it is experiencing a downtrend.
Another metric that bears mention is the price correlation between BTC and other traditional assets. As of the time of writing, the correlation between the price movement of the apex coin and indices like DAX and S&P 500 is now positive.
Both of the highlighted assets have had a bearish divergence in MACD and are experiencing more downtrends. This is another indication of further price decreases ahead for bitcoin. How low will the apex coin dip or rise? Here are the key levels to watch.
Key Levels to Watch
Support: $26,000, $24,000
Resistance: $32,000, $36,000, $40,000
Bitcoin is currently exchanging at $27,400. It is important to defend the mark as a slip down level will result in more support flipping. The first of the line is the $27k support. Failure to hold this level will result in inevitable retest of $24,000.
This is especially so as we observed a CME gap between $25k and $24,000. As with the rules governing the metric, a gap must be filled and we see that filled out this month.
A change in market sentiment could send the top coin as high as $30k. This level is not one of the toughest as it has been flipped a number of times. One of the strongest barriers is $32k as recent attempts at the mark failed to yield results.
If Bitcoin gains stability above $32,000, there could further rallies to subsiquents levels like $36,000 and $40,000.