Bitcoin Mirrors S&P 500 Drop — Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Sees Strength in Risk-Off Market

Despite geopolitical unpredictability and financial challenges, the Bitcoin price remains resilient around the $80,000 mark. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan pointed out a significant change in Bitcoin’s behavior amidst market turbulence in a fresh investor report dated April 15, 2025. While traditional markets have tumbled, Bitcoin has held steady, suggesting a maturing asset ready to step beyond its risk-on reputation. However, Hougan cautions that lingering macro threats still pose a challenge to Bitcoin’s path higher.

Bitcoin Mirrors Stocks – But That’s a Win?

Matt Hougan’s latest analysis offers a surprising perspective: Bitcoin’s current performance has closely mirrored the S&P 500’s 12% drop since February 19, marking a stark departure from its usual steep plunges during equity sell-offs. In prior market downturns—including COVID-19 and trade-war driven slumps – Bitcoin price typically saw drawdowns two to three times greater than stocks. This time, it’s a 12.4% decline over the same period, suggesting growing correlation, but also newfound resilience.

While critics may argue that simply keeping pace with stocks doesn’t make Bitcoin a hedge, Hougan argues the very fact that BTC hasn’t collapsed further under global pressure is worth recognizing. He noted, “Bitcoin is acting like an asset that wants to go higher, if only macro obstacles would get out of the way.”

Bitcoin’s Evolution: From Risk Asset to Macro Contender

Hougan paints Bitcoin as an asset in transition. Once seen purely as a speculative risk asset, Bitcoin is now inching toward recognition as a “macro asset.” With institutions adding it to portfolios, companies holding it on balance sheets, and governments exploring strategic reserves, BTC is gradually becoming what many call “digital gold.”

Still, Hougan remains cautious. He points out that gold continues to outperform Bitcoin during periods of systemic stress—an indicator that BTC hasn’t fully graduated to hedge status. The cryptocurrency’s resilience, however, is undeniable: it has managed to stay above the $80,000 mark even as macro factors, like Trump’s new tariffs and the broader market sell-off, put pressure on global assets.

Chart 1: BTC faces stiff resistance at the mid-trend line, 1-day chart, published on TradingView, April 15, 2025

This moment, Hougan suggests, marks a maturing phase in Bitcoin’s lifecycle. It still has the potential for explosive gains, but it’s increasingly tied to global risk narratives. Investors, therefore, need to recognize both the opportunities and vulnerabilities that come with Bitcoin’s evolving identity.

The Road Ahead: Will Bitcoin Break Free?

So, will Bitcoin break free? Looking forward, Bitcoin’s trajectory hinges on how broader financial markets evolve. Hougan warns that deeper equity slides could still drag Bitcoin down. Yet, he remains optimistic that Bitcoin’s solid footing, despite macro disruptions, may indicate it’s ready to operate alongside, rather than against, traditional financial instruments. His closing thoughts reflect a cautious optimism: “Our baby is growing up as a macro asset. And that’s a beautiful thing to see.”

Final Thoughts: Bitcoin Price Shows Strength, But Macro Hurdles Remain

The current Bitcoin price trend reflects a nuanced transformation. While it hasn’t become a full-fledged haven, its relative stability amid chaos suggests a more robust asset than in past cycles. Investors may see this as a sign of maturity, but they’ll also need to stay alert. Whether BTC climbs higher or gets pulled down by the next macro shock, one thing’s clear: Bitcoin is now playing in the big leagues.