For the past three weeks, Bitcoin’s performance has not been up to the expectations of the bulls. Price movement suggests that the apex coin is not seeing an equal amount of volatility as seen some months back.
Last month was of the most dreaded, as BTC failed to impress. After seeing a high of $59,053 within the first five days of the past 30 days, crypto’s largest coin failed to hold on to the early lead and was hit by a series of seller’s congestions that resulted in a 18.8% deficit at the end of December.
The largest digital asset by market cap suffered one of the biggest price drops some days back. Dec. 4 saw the top coin dip as low as $42k (the lowest in the past three months ) after the intraday sessions above $53,000.
Bitcoin ended the period under consideration below $50,000. Following the below par performance from the king coin, the buyers will be looking forward to starting a price rally that will send BTC above $50k. Will this happen in January? Let’s take a look at some determining factors.
Indicators
Previous analysis has already established that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hints at bearish actions during the current intraweek activity. The faster line is moving closer to the slower line and once it is intercepted, the largest digital asset may be hit with a series of corrections.
The article ended with a prediction that the apex coin may end the seven-day period below $48,000. Although the initial prediction took place, we observed that the bearish cross on MACD was delayed as buying pressure increased.
The top coin is not of the danger zone yet as there is still a close interaction between the fast and the slow lines of the indicator under consideration. This as well will not spell positivity for BTC into the first month of 2022.
The further stated that a slow response on the part of the buyers may extend the bearish dominance. The considered indicator is not the only one hinting at a bad start to the upcoming year. The 50-day MA and 200-MA are also blaring warnings.
Looking at the chart above, it is impossible not to see that closing green and red lines that may soon intercept. What does this mean? A death cross on the horizon. This phenomenon is one of the most dreaded on any instrument or asset. What’s new?
The previous Moving Average Convergence Divergence projections were based on the daily charts. Unfortunately, the same warnings seen on the 1-day chart also appear on the monthly – reinforcing claims of bitcoin suffering more bearish actions.
Previous Record
We note that since BTC became a tradable asset in 2010, eleven Januarys have passed. Of this figure, six came out positive and five ended with the top coin suffering significant deficits. On average, crypto’s largest asset gains 6.9% during the period under consideration.
The highest loss seen during these 31-days periods was 26% in 2015 while a hike of 59% in 2011. Based on the records, we may conclude that the bulls overall are top gainers. Nonetheless, bearing in mind the above mentioned factors, we deduce that the bears may enjoy most of the spotlight over the next 28 days. Why turn to records?
Although there is no clear pattern to the negative months, we can project how low the apex coin may fall based on previous performance. Taking into consideration current market conditions, bitcoin may not suffer massive dips. Possibly a less than 10% deficit at the end of the month.
Market fundamentals
The first 31 days of 2021 saw the crypto market bustle with activities. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said of 2022 as market fundamentals have been fairly flat since December of the previous year.
Stability in fundamentals has resulted in the top coin ranging. BTC has been unable to break the $46,000 to $52,000 circle for more than three weeks now. Nonetheless, we are only three days into January, which means the crypto space may start to get heated up.
Note: The above predictions are based on charts and previous market performance which means that this article is rooted in the current market situation. A change in market conditions could alter these projections and as such, it is important for traders to do their own research
