Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Lock $42B in Gains as ETF Inflows Rebound to $386M and Retail Buying Triggers Fresh Market Volatility Warnings

On June 10, analyst Axel Adler Jr shared a detailed on-chain analysis of Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holders (LTHs). He revealed that the LTH cohort increased their holdings from 14.031 million to 15.182 million BTC. This reflects an addition of 1.151 million BTC, valued at around $125.4 billion at current prices. Accumulation occurred in the $61,000-$83,000 range, with an average entry price of approximately $72,000. The unrealized profit stands at nearly $42.5 billion. On the same day, Cas Abbé, Web3 Growth Manager at Binance, highlighted that institutions bought nearly $386 million worth of BTC. This is the largest single-day ETF inflow in nearly two weeks, possibly due to US-China trade developments.

ETF Inflows and Bitcoin Market: Institutional Demand Signals Short-Term Optimism

On June 10, Cas Abbé stated that Bitcoin ETF inflows hit $386 million. This marked the largest institutional investment in nearly two weeks. The buying wave followed ongoing US-China trade discussions, hinting at macroeconomic factors driving digital asset sentiment. Despite recent caution, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. reported $129 million in net outflows between June 2 and June 6. June 5 saw the largest single-day outflow of $278.44 million, coinciding with Bitcoin’s dip to $100,372. However, the outflows eased the next day, suggesting resilience.

Source: Cas Abbé X Post on June 10, 2025

The ETF market now reflects mixed investor sentiment, short-term caution with long-term bullish undertones. Derivatives data adds complexity. BTC perpetual futures showed negative funding rates (-0.0056%), indicating increased short activity. However, BTC options (Deribit) reflect a high volume of call positions, suggesting medium-term optimism among professionals.

Long-Term Holder Activity and Accumulation Trends Support Higher Valuations

Axel Adler’s June 10 analysis indicates sustained confidence from LTHs. From the $83,000 mark, 1.151 million BTC were accumulated. This brought the cohort’s holdings to 15.182 million BTC. The average entry price was near $72,000, creating an unrealized profit margin of approximately 51%. This translates to about $42.5 billion in gains.

Source: Axel X Post on June 10, 2025

Such accumulation in the $61,000 to $83,000 zone indicates strategic positioning. This behavior from LTHs supports structural bullishness in the Bitcoin market. However, some bearish signs emerged. The Net Position Realized Cap for LTHs fell from $28 billion to $2 billion by May-end. This suggests reduced net accumulation despite high prices, raising questions about future buying behavior.

ETF Inflows and Bitcoin Market: Diverging Cohorts Highlight Shift in Power Dynamics

On-chain metrics reveal contrasting behaviors among Bitcoin wallet cohorts. Large holders (1,000–10,000 BTC) have been steadily selling. In contrast, mid-sized holders (100–1,000 BTC) continue to buy. This divergence points to reduced institutional activity and rising retail investor confidence.

Source: Axel Daily On-Chain Analysis Chart

Meanwhile, a notable 7,883 BTC was withdrawn from Coinbase, which hints at renewed institutional accumulation. This exchange outflow occurred while other indicators reflected weakened momentum. Net Realized Profit/Loss data indicates modest profit-taking compared to previous cycle tops. This suggests that the market has not yet peaked, leaving room for upward moves.

Source: Axel X Post on June 10, 2025

Axel shared the analysis on BTC’s future market sentiment. A $1B drop in open interest signals a major unwinding of positions and reduced leverage in the market. The negative net taker volume underscores seller dominance and a retreat from the local $110K peak. If this bearish momentum continues, Bitcoin may retest the $106K support level shortly.

Mixed Signals Show Cautious Optimism in Bitcoin Market

Bitcoin fell 0.2% on June 10 to $103,854 from its recent all-time high of $111,814. Previously, on June 9, Bitcoin traded at $105,488, down 0.13%. Analysts note that bullish momentum has slowed. Stablecoin outflows, LTH pullbacks, and ETF withdrawals point to weakening fundamentals. Yet, professional traders remain cautiously bullish. ETF inflows rebounded on June 10. 

Bitcoin ETF inflows surged as optimism grows around the ongoing US-China trade talks. This signals renewed institutional confidence. With the Fed closely watching inflation data and global supply chain dynamics, easing tensions between the two superpowers. This mix of signals creates an uncertain environment. ETF inflows and Bitcoin market dynamics now hinge on macro developments and trader confidence. If institutional activity sustains and LTH support remains intact, Bitcoin could avoid falling below $100,000. Short-term corrections remain possible, but long-term indicators offer hope for recovery and new highs.