Bitcoin Hits Compression Zone as Analysts Predict Breakout on ETF Flows

On July 8, Bitcoin remains rangebound between $100K and $110K. However, analysts say the quiet could end soon. Multiple on-chain indicators now point to an imminent breakout, supported by strong institutional demand and suppressed volatility.

Image 1: Cumulative Volume Delta by Exchange (Derivatives) highlighted by Kyledoops

Bitcoin has been locked in a narrow range for over six weeks, with Binance Derivatives showing constant sell pressure for 45 days. Despite the heavy shorting, BTC has refused to break down, hovering near $108K. According to analyst @kyledoops, this persistent selling without a breakdown suggests that large buyers are absorbing the pressure. Historically, such price standoffs tend to end with a sudden squeeze.

Volatility Indicators Signal Impending Move 

Axel Adler Jr. highlights a key technical setup: a Bollinger Bands squeeze. The current range between the upper and lower bands has shrunk to just 7.7%, one of the lowest levels seen during this bull cycle. Such squeezes often precede sharp price movements.

Image 2: Bitcoin Bollinger Bands Range highlighted by Axel Adler Jr.

Of the six similar squeezes seen this cycle, four were followed by immediate rallies, and two by minor pullbacks before continuation. Adler notes that the setup strongly favors an upward breakout, particularly in a bullish macro environment.

BTC Still Undervalued, Says Mayer Multiple 

Supporting this, the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple, a long-term valuation metric that compares price to its 200-day moving average.

Image 3: Bitcoin Mayer Multiple highlighted by Axel Adler Jr.

The indicator is currently at 1.1x, which falls within the neutral zone. While below the 1.5x level typically associated with overbought conditions. This suggests that BTC remains undervalued relative to previous bull markets, giving it room to run.

Institutional Buying Continues Despite Volatility 

ETF flows provide another layer of support. According to Cas Abbé, U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs bought $216.5 million worth of BTC on July 7. While Ethereum ETFs added $62.1 million. This comes even after both BTC and ETH saw price declines that day. Abbé argues this reflects confidence among institutional investors, who appear unfazed by recent trade policy volatility. In his words, “Joyful July is still on the table.”

Breakout Hinges on Key Technical Level 

A widely-watched technical pattern, the Power-of-3, is currently in play. Bitcoin remains in its expansion phase and needs a weekly close above $110K to confirm a new short-term uptrend. Abbé emphasizes that downside volatility is now limited due to steady ETF inflows and corporate BTC purchases.

In sum, the market shows multiple signs of being coiled for a significant move. ETF support, technical compression, undervaluation metrics, and absorption of short pressure are all converging. Traders now look to $110K as the decisive line. A breakout above could ignite renewed bullish momentum, while failure to break may keep BTC in its current range. Either way, a major shift appears to be near.