Bitcoin Apparent Demand Flips Negative as Price Holds Near $108K

On June 30, CryptoQuant reported a concerning turn, Bitcoin apparent demand flips negative. BTC is currently trading at $108,202.21, with a rise of just 0.77%. The present demand deficit suggests that supply from miners and long-term holders is overpowering new buyer interest. This mismatch could signal a deeper price weakness ahead. Analyst Axel Adler also noted that Bitcoin’s valuation stands in a neutral zone, hinting at indecision. Selling pressure mounts as BTC nears $110K and $106K resistance.

Once Again, BTC Apparent Demand Turns South

The apparent demand metric reflects whether fresh market interest is keeping up with supply. Right now, it’s not. CryptoQuant confirmed that supply from miners and long-term holders, often called smart money, is outpacing the inflow of new buyers. When Bitcoin apparent demand turns south, it raises a red flag for traders and holders. This means coins are hitting the market faster than people are willing to buy them.

Image 1: Bitcoin: Apparent Demand

That leads to only one conclusion that there’s too much selling pressure and not enough demand to keep prices steady. Historically, this imbalance has often led to short-term corrections. It also signals a weakening of market confidence. Unless demand rebounds swiftly, prices may struggle to find strong support. Resistance at $110,000 could now act as a psychological barrier.

Long-Term Holders Increase Their Realized Profits

One key development is the shift in long-term holder (LTH) behavior. According to Darkfost, realized profits among LTHs have reached around 10,000 BTC. In contrast, short-term holders are seeing profits below 3,000 BTC. This shift matters because LTHs usually sell when they sense market peaks or want to lock in gains. Their activity often shapes market sentiment.

Image 2: Realised Profit and Loss by Cohort {BTC}

Still, it’s worth noting this number remains far below the historic 30,000 BTC mark, which usually precedes market tops. That suggests we’re not yet at a panic-selling point. However, this slight uptick could still add to near-term volatility. If LTHs continue to cash out, that could worsen the supply-demand mismatch and delay any rally attempts.

Valuation Appears Neutral, But Risk Remains

On-chain data paints a mixed picture. Axel Adler pointed to the “Bitcoin Distribution by Realized Supply” ratio, comparing the current price to the price at which most BTC last moved. This ratio mirrors the price-to-earnings ratio used in stock analysis. A higher value means Bitcoin looks expensive, and a lower value suggests it’s cheap.

Image 3: Realised Profit and Loss by Cohort {BTC}

Currently, the BTC price sits just above its annual ratio, a situation similar to what was seen in November 2024, right before a major rally. This shows the coin isn’t clearly overbought or undervalued. So, while Bitcoin apparent demand flips negative, the broader valuation suggests the market is still balanced. That neutral reading might bring some comfort, but the fragile demand still leaves the price exposed to dips.

Outlook Cautious As Key Resistance Levels Emerge

Bitcoin’s resistance levels are clearly defined at $110,000 and $106,000. With prices near $108,000, the market is approaching critical technical zones. These levels may block upward movement unless demand recovers quickly. If the price fails to break through $110,000, sellers might regain control. The mix of weak demand, increased LTH selling, and a neutral valuation creates a delicate environment. Traders may find it hard to navigate. While no dramatic sell-off is guaranteed, caution remains the best approach. Until demand matches or beats supply, risk stays elevated. A stronger recovery signal is needed before calling the next bullish phase.

Investors Are Watching As BTC Demand Falls Behind Supply

The current market data demands a careful stance. When BTC demand falls behind supply, it tells a story of imbalance. Miners and seasoned holders are selling more than buyers are willing to purchase. Valuation metrics offer no clear relief, showing neither overvaluation nor a bargain. Resistance around $110,000 could hold firm unless demand picks up. Until clearer signals emerge, a patient and alert approach remains key in this uncertain market phase.