Bitcoin Analysis: BTC Sees Worse Fourth Quarter Since 2014

Crypto trading

Bitcoin is gradually closing the fourth quarter with significant losses. Such a level of downtrend is unprecedented as the last time the apex coin lost this fraction was in 2014. During this time, it lost more than 17%.

With the current timeframe in view, we are gradually seeing the same pattern. Currently down by more than 15%, there are slight signs of recovery. However, they are not well sustained due to the massive drop in volatility.

A lot happened within the last three months that bears mentioning. Additionally, the downtrend had a huge impact on indicators. Let’s see some key events that took place during this period.

Key Events of Q4

The session started with so much drama as the apex coin saw an extra push from different parties. One such is Mike McGlone. At the start of October, he speculated that this may be the start of the massive buyback.

Another personality said he will never sell his BTC bag and will hold for as long as possible. Reports also came out that MicroStrategy, outperformed all major assets and indices in a recent evaluation of stock performance over the previous two years, gaining 116%.

President Nayib Bukele maintained his strong attitude on the top cryptocurrency despite allegations that El Salvador’s Bitcoin revolution is failing miserably. He vowed to purchase at least one unit each day.

Days later, the Central American country took steps to be able to issue its $1 billion in bitcoin bonds thanks to a measure that has been introduced to parliament on digital securities. Another report has it that crypto miners gained more than $9 billion in 2022.

We noticed more adoptions as bitcoin became a legal form of payment in Brazil. The period is coming to an end with yet another bullish news. Microstrategy decided to buy the dip and stack up more BTC. Aside from these stories, there were smaller ones as well. Nonetheless, let’s examine how prices play out.

Bitcoin Worse Year

In 2018, BTC lost more than 70% of its value. However, it is down by 60% and we conclude that this is the worse year. The reason for this conclusion is on the 3-month chart. We noticed that for the first time since it became a tradeable asset four quarters of the year were negative.

Q1 saw the apex coin dip to a low of $32,950 after it opened at $46,530. It rebounded and surged to its high but failed to completely erase the losses. As a result, it closed with a doji candle but red.

Q2 was the worst as it had its longest candle. The coin dipped from a high of $47k to a close at $19,924. These figures signify a drop of more than 50%. The massive downtrend continued as we observed further decrease in the third quarter.

It recovered from a low of $18k to peak at $25,212. However, it retraced and closed with no significant increases or losses. It ended the period under consideration with losses of almost 3%. The fourth quarter is not any better.

BTC retraced to levels it hasn’t since Q4 2020. It dipped to a low of $15,479 and is struggling to hold prices above $16k. Currently, it is down by more than 14%. Nonetheless, we noticed several attempts at recovery at the start of the period under consideration.

A Good Start to the Fourth Quarter

October saw the coin close with significant increases. One dominant feature during this period is the low trading volume the asset saw. A look at the weekly chart tells why. During the first week, it gained less than 3%.

The next seven-day session saw the ape coin fail to record any notable change to its price. The third week was a green but the same as the previous. The fourth week came with the biggest increase as we noticed a more than 5% increase in the end.

Low trading volume during the next intraweek session. At the end of the month, it closed with gains of more than 5%. Unfortunately, these were the only big moves we saw in Q4. The next month was the most bearish.

This was as a result of FTX collapse. On November 8, as the second-largest cryptocurrency exchange was closing down, the entire market entered a panic mode. Customers were unable to access their funds since they stopped accepting withdrawals. The values of the biggest cryptocurrencies were driven by this to a level they had not reached in a while.

For instance, BTC fell from a high of $20,5967 to $17,144. Even if the apex coin made attempts at recovery, it still lost approximately 10% of its value during the intraday session. The following intraday session demonstrated that the bloodbath had not ended.

The following day, it hit another low and experienced harsher market circumstances than the day before. This time, when the bearish domination reached its peak, the asset under consideration reversed the $16k support.

As a result, it lost 14% of its value and set a new yearly low of $15,632. The apex coin fell on the 21st of the month, losing $16,000 to close at $15,479, a new session low for 2022. Let’s examine the impact it had on indicators.

MACD Divergence Deepens

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence is a huge source of concern. A look at the indicator showed that the asset under consideration had a bearish divergence during the previous quarter.

Failure to regain bullish composure sees the situation toughen. We noticed that the 12-day EMA downtrend is taking a turn for the worst. It is dipping with no signs of recovery. The last time the coin had a divergence, it lasted two years before recovery. Will this be a repeat?

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