Arthur Hayes Says BTC to $250K By the Year End? Fed’s 94% RRP Plunge Might Just Make It Happen

Analysts are sounding alarms about the Federal Reserve’s quiet liquidity injection amid geopolitical tensions and fragile economic conditions. While the Fed has not formally announced quantitative easing (QE) yet, its actions tell a different story, sparking debates about the potential impact on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo Decline Sees Big Drop

The Reverse Repo Facility of the Federal Reserve has seen a dramatic decline of late. The RRP balance at the centre has shrunk from $2.5 trillion in 2022 to just $148 billion, a 94% drop. This shift indicates that liquidity is re-entering the financial system. This can lead to bull runs in crypto assets like Bitcoin. Oz, the founder of The Markets Unplugged, commented in a post on X, “This isn’t hopium. This is actual liquidity being unchained… the biggest stealth easing since 2020 has been underway.” 

Oz went on a multi-tweet rant on the current market conditions, adding that this is a risky maneuver. He wrote, “Let’s pair that with what else we know: RRP is under $150B and still draining, Fed balance sheet is not tightening aggressively, no repo spike, no bid/ask dislocation Translation? Liquidity is still circulating. The engine isn’t broken.” 

3/
This isn’t hopium.
This is actual liquidity being unchained.

While people are screaming about tariffs, inflation, and ghost-of-SVB trauma…

The biggest stealth easing since 2020 has been underway.

And now the hose is wide open.

— Oz (@AskCryptoWealth) April 8, 2025

How Will the Bitcoin Price React to the Added Liquidity? Hayes Answers

Bitcoin, often described as a “global liquidity proxy,” thrives in the presence of high liquidity. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, predicts that Bitcoin could surpass its previous all-time high of $109K if quantitative easing continues. He wrote, “If my analysis of the Fed’s major pivot from QT to QE for treasuries is correct, then Bitcoin hit a local low of $76,500 last month, and now we begin the ascent to $250,000 by year-end.” 

As global liquidity rises and the Fed’s silent liquidity injection, crypto markets may benefit despite the economic throwdowns, Bitcoin’s fate depends on whether the Federal Reserve’s liquidity injections continue stealthily or become an official effort. Let us take a look at the Bitcoin price analysis ourselves to analyze what patterns emerge.

BTC Price Analysis: BTC Loses Days-Long Progress, Returns to $74K

Bitcoin commenced trading at a positive $79,500 mark considering previous price action. However, a pattern came to emerge today as Bitcoin tended to start on an uptrend, test resistances a few times, and then face a strong reversal. Bitcoin would then go on to breach the support level, stabilize, and then repeat the process all over again. An observation of the RSI also reveals market sentiment and the buying and selling pressures in play. For most of the day, the RSI has remained tipped towards the bearish part. This has led Bitcoin to jump on downtrends and not get any significant reversals. Even golden crosses on the MACD have done only enough to stabilize the price movement, not push it up. 

Chart 1 – Published on TradingView, April 9, 2025

Bitcoin fell below the $78,860 support early in the day. An extended downtrend followed, and Bitcoin was sent reeling to the $76,400 support. With some consolidation and lack of upward pressure, Bitcoin breached the support again, this time falling to $74,660. However, it does seem that Bitcoin has formed a bottom, since it has then effectively prevented falling to the support level. Its recent advance to $77,700 was again rejected. Though Bitcoin has mustered enough bullish support to not fall far below, finding some support at $77,000. 

BTC Price Prediction: Can BTC Break Above $77,700?

Bitcoin needs more than just a hop and skip to get back to the $80K range now. The absence of a strong upward trend is very clear. Even now, as BTC tries to test the resistance with the $77,000 support, it will be difficult for Bitcoin to show any positive if the buying pressure does not support it. With the death cross forming on the MACD, a resistance break looks implausible for now.