Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $3.4M by 2028

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has outlined a bold scenario where Bitcoin could climb to $3.4 million within the next three years. His projection, shared in a recent essay. It rests on the possibility of aggressive monetary expansion if a second Trump administration implements yield curve control (YCC) and injects massive credit into the U.S. economy.

Yield Curve Control and Monetary Expansion

Hayes draws parallels between the modern U.S. economy and the period of World War II. When the Federal Reserve capped bond yields to finance military spending. Between 1942 and 1951. The Fed fixed short-term Treasury bill yields at 0.675% and long-term yields at 2.5%. This allowed the government to borrow cheaply while directing credit toward wartime industry.

In his view, Trump’s policy team, led by financier William “Buffalo Bill” Bessent, could pursue a similar path. If the Fed comes under stronger political influence. It could cap yields by lowering the interest on reserves and purchasing Treasury bonds in massive quantities. The result would be a steep rise in the Fed’s balance sheet and a surge in available credit. Arthur Hayes argues this approach would resemble “manipulating the yield curve” to channel credit into defense manufacturing and heavy industry. It is potentially fueling geopolitical campaigns.

Lessons From COVID Stimulus

To estimate the impact, Hayes references the COVID-19 pandemic response. At that time, the Fed purchased about 40% of all Treasury debt issued, and bank credit expanded by $2.5 trillion. Using this as a benchmark. He projects that a Trump-driven YCC program could generate $15.2 trillion in new credit by 2028. The key assumption in his model is Bitcoin’s sensitivity to credit growth. During the pandemic, Bitcoin rose in line with monetary expansion, showing a rough correlation of 0.19 between credit growth and percentage price increase. Applying that slope to his $15 trillion projection yields a Bitcoin price of $3.4 million.

A Directional Bet, Not an Exact Call

Arthur Hayes stresses that the figure should not be seen as a precise forecast. Instead, he frames it as directional guidance. The central idea is that Bitcoin thrives in environments of unchecked monetary expansion. While fiat currencies lose purchasing power. He admits the number is speculative but insists the trend is clear: “My goal is to get the direction of travel correct and be confident that I’m betting on the fastest horse.”

Skepticism Over Market Impact

Despite the headline-grabbing figure, Hayes also tempers expectations. He does not claim Bitcoin will definitely reach $3.4 million. Instead, he argues that it will rise significantly above its current level of about $115,000 if trillions of dollars are injected into the economy. Arthur Hayes further points out that foreign central banks are less likely to buy U.S. debt today than in the past.  Meaning the Fed may need to absorb an even larger share. In his view, this increases the likelihood of aggressive money printing, a backdrop he sees as bullish for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin as the “Strongest Track”

For Hayes, the broader takeaway is that Bitcoin remains the best hedge against monetary excess. In an environment where governments turn to financial repression and unlimited credit to sustain their agendas. He argues Bitcoin stands apart as a scarce, non-sovereign asset. Wu Shuo, a Chinese blockchain commentator, summarized Hayes’ essay. Noted that Arthur Hayes’ real aim was not to shock with a price target. But to reinforce the thesis that Bitcoin outpaces traditional assets when monetary expansion becomes inevitable.

Outlook

Hayes’ $3.4 million Bitcoin projection is less about pinning down a number and more about spotlighting macroeconomic trends. If yield curve control and large-scale credit expansion unfold under a Trump administration. Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin will be the ultimate beneficiary. Whether his $3.4 million figure proves right or wrong. The underlying message is consistent: in a world of sustained money printing, Bitcoin remains, in Hayes’ words, “the fastest horse.”