Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin at $250K by 2025 — Is the Fed the Catalyst?

Arthur Hayes, the outspoken co-founder of BitMEX, is back with another bold prediction: Bitcoin could skyrocket to $250,000 by the end of 2025. His reasoning? Liquidity. More specifically, he believes the U.S. Federal Reserve will soon be forced to inject fresh liquidity into the financial system, and that could light a fire under Bitcoin and other risk assets.

Let’s take a look at how Hayes arrives at such a bullish outlook, and what might stand in the way.

Rising Bond Yields: A Sign of Stress?

Hayes points to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassing 4.5% as a clear red flag. This metric often reflects investor confidence, and when it spikes, it can signal that the financial system is under stress. According to Hayes, this rising pressure could eventually push the Fed to step in and stabilize things, not just by adjusting interest rates, but by injecting liquidity directly into the market.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins recently echoed a similar sentiment, saying that although markets are functioning “fine for now,” the Fed is keeping an eye on liquidity risks. Should financial conditions deteriorate, the central bank has tools, beyond rate cuts, to respond.

This is exactly the kind of environment Hayes sees as ripe for Bitcoin to thrive.

Trade War 2.0: Inflation and Instability

The brewing economic tension between the U.S. and China is adding even more fuel to the fire. With new tariffs from both countries — including a U.S. tariff rate spike to 145% on some Chinese goods and China responding with 125% on American products — fears are rising. Inflation could climb, supply chains might weaken, and jobs could be at risk. All of this makes traditional markets jittery.

Although there’s a 90-day pause before the new tariffs fully kick in, the long-term uncertainty remains. Hayes believes this uncertainty will ultimately force the Fed to step in, further validating his thesis that Bitcoin stands to benefit.

In his eyes, these macroeconomic stress signals are loud and clear — and they point to one thing: accumulation time for Bitcoin.

When the Fed Prints, Bitcoin Pumps

Bitcoin has a track record of reacting positively to periods of expansive monetary policy. Remember 2020? When the Fed responded to the pandemic with trillions in stimulus, Bitcoin soared from under $10K to nearly $70K in just over a year.

Hayes thinks we’re heading into a similar cycle. As central banks, especially the Fed, prepare to keep liquidity flowing to ease market pressures, Bitcoin could once again ride the wave.

While critics might call the $250K prediction extreme, Hayes believes the math checks out — especially if inflation continues, interest rates stay elevated, and central banks are left with few options besides turning the money printer back on.

A High-Stakes Bet on Macro Forces

In the end, Hayes’ prediction isn’t just about charts or crypto cycles. It’s rooted in broader economic realities — bond market stress, trade war risks, and potential central bank intervention. Whether or not Bitcoin hits $250K, one thing is clear: global monetary policy continues to play a massive role in shaping crypto’s path forward.